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Strategic Analysis | January 2020

Prospects and Challenges for the US Economy

2020 and Beyond
This Strategic Analysis examines the US economy’s prospects for 2020–23 and the risks that lie ahead. The baseline projection generated by the Levy Institute’s stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model shows that, given current fiscal arrangements and the slowdown in the global economy, the pace of the US recovery will slacken somewhat, with a growth rate that will average 1.5 percent over the next several years.

The authors then point to three factors that can derail this already weak baseline trajectory: (1) an overvalued stock market; (2) evidence that the corporate sector’s balance sheets are more fragile than they have ever been in the postwar period; and (3) risks in the foreign sector stemming from the slowdown of the global economy, an overvalued dollar, and the current administration’s erratic trade policy.

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Publication Highlight

Testimony
Statement of Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray to the House Budget Committee, US House of Representatives
Reexamining the Economic Costs of Debt
Author(s): L. Randall Wray, Yeva Nersisyan
November 2019

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