Publications

1711 publications found

• Working Paper No. 1099
  October 22, 2025

  A Stock-Flow Consistent Model of Emulation, Debt, and Personal Income Inequality

  Francesco Ruggeri, Riccardo Pariboni, and Giuliano Toshiro Yajima
  Abstract

  Read the associated blog post here. Divergent trends in income and consumption inequality—with the first increasing substantially more than the latter—are an established, stylized fact for the US economy in the last decades. The same time period also experienced a steady increase in household debt, plausibly not independent from the patterns in income distribution and […]

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• Working Paper No. 1098
  October 17, 2025

  Creative Destruction Meets Financial Instability: Toward a New Synthesis

  Leonardo Burlamaqui
  Abstract

  This paper reconstructs Joseph Schumpeter’s major works to propose a coherent new departure point for analyzing economic and social change. I argue that Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942) (CSD) marks a radical departure from Schumpeter’s earlier attempts in The Theory of Economic Development (1912 [1934]) (TED) and Business Cycles (1939) (BC) to merge equilibrium theory […]

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• Strategic Analysis
  October 14, 2025

  The US Economy amid Rising Global Uncertainty

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Contrary to upbeat announcements on the prospects for the US economy from the current administration in Washington, economic conditions are softening for this year. The market for labor is increasing anemically after the significant downward adjustments to the earlier months of 2025 and the disappointing reports in recent months (July and August 2025) that showed […]

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• Policy Note No. 2025/8
  October 08, 2025

  How Secure Is Wage Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa?

  Ajit Zacharias, Aashima Sinha, Abena D. Oduro, Nthabiseng Moleko, Thomas Masterson, and Fernando Rios-Avila
  Abstract

  Employment security refers to the ability of both formal and informal institutions to provide employed individuals protection against economic risks and support their economic progress. It is related, but not limited, to the worker’s capacity to earn a sufficient level of income. In most high-income countries, government-supported or government-facilitated institutions exist, with varying degrees of […]

• Working Paper No. 1097
  October 08, 2025

  How Fiscal Policy Matters: An Empirical Analysis of the “Crowding-In” Effects of Public Infrastructure Investment in India

  Venkat Hariharan Asha, Ajay Ojha, Sutharson T., and Lekha S. Chakraborty
  Abstract

  Using high-frequency data, the paper analyzes the link between public infrastructure investment and private corporate investment in India for the decade ending 2023–24. We adopt the ARDL model to investigate the existence of cointegration and find strong evidence of the crowding-in of private corporate investment both in the long- and short-run analyses. Moreover, long-term real […]

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• Working Paper No. 1096
  October 07, 2025

  Gender Norms and Women’s Employment During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from India

  Amit Basole, M. K. Shravan, and R. Vijayamba
  Abstract

  We examine the role of household-level social norms regarding women’s mobility in determining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women’s employment. The shock of the pandemic containment measures, such as India’s nationwide lockdown caused both supply- and demand-side disruptions. Nationally representative labor force surveys offer suggestive evidence that loss of income and employment for […]

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• Working Paper No. 1095
  October 06, 2025

  A Short History of MGNREGA: Twenty Years in Ten Charts

  Jean Drèze and Rahul R.
  Abstract

  India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), enacted in 2005, is an experiment of major significance. Drawing on official statistics, this paper presents a broad-brush retrospective on MGNREGA’s first 20 years, focusing inter alia on employment generation, the participation of marginalized groups, real wages, administrative expenditure, and comparative experiences of different Indian states. […]

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• Working Paper No. 1094
  October 01, 2025

  Lebanon’s Eventual Transition to a Floating Exchange Rate System

  Roudy Sassine
  Abstract

  Lebanon’s longstanding fixed exchange rate regime collapsed in the wake of the country’s 2019 financial crisis. This paper examines the underlying causes of the collapse, offering a new policy framework based on a floating exchange rate system and detailing its superior qualities. However, the paper cautions against a hasty transition without strengthening economic fundamentals. Instead, […]

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• Working Paper No. 1093
  September 19, 2025

  “Trapped Inside a World of Labor”: Gender Gaps in Agricultural Productivity and Reproductive Labor in Malawi

  A. Haroon Akram-Lodhi
  Abstract

  This paper investigates the relationship between the work of reproductive labor and the efficiency of gender-segmented farm production in Malawi. It starts by presenting quantitative estimates of the gender gap in agricultural productivity among small-scale petty commodity producers in Malawi, along with estimates of the proximate drivers of this gap, which demonstrate that men are […]

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• Working Paper No. 1092
  September 19, 2025

  Recent Initiatives in Improving the Collection of Time-use Data for Measuring Work: Some Issues

  Indira Hirway
  Abstract

  Time-use data are expected to help in understanding and addressing critical socioeconomic concerns including gender inequalities in a country. The data also help in integrating gender into economic analysis and economic policy making to promote inclusive development. Against this rising demand for time-use data, the supply of quality time-use data is not coming forth, particularly […]

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• Policy Note No. 2025/7
  September 19, 2025

  No, the Fed Is NOT Independent—It Is a Creature of Congress

  Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  In response to President Trump’s attack on the Federal Reserve, the natural critics of misguided monetary policy find themselves defending the Fed and the notion that the Fed is—and must be—independent. In a recent interview, Senator Elizabeth Warren began by admitting, “I completely disagreed with Chair Powell since he was first nominated by Donald Trump, […]

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• Working Paper No. 1091
  September 04, 2025

  Banking on Payments?

  Jörg Bibow
  Abstract

  For the past hundred years or more, payments have been primarily associated with banking, and banking as we know it today—being the result of many centuries of evolution—features a bundling of (at least) three main lines of business: lending, deposit-taking, and payment services. In the past 15 years or so, banks have come under severe […]

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• Policy Note No. 2025/6
  August 21, 2025

  The USMCA Is Not Competitive Against China

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The governments of the US and Canada are pressuring Mexico not to import products or accept investments from China, such that Mexico would be forced to import products from them instead. As a result, Mexico would be unable to leverage Chinese investments that could compromise the interests of the US and Canada. The Mexican government […]

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• Working Paper No. 1090
  August 14, 2025

  Education and Economic Isolation

  Yousuf Daas, Sameh Hallaq, Danilo Leite Dalmon, and Jennifer Olmsted
  Abstract

  This study examines the impact of the Gaza blockade on private returns to education, with a focus on regional and gender disparities in the Palestinian territories. Using data from the Palestinian Labor Force Survey (2000–2014). Results show that, generally, education yields higher returns in Gaza compared to the West Bank. Gender disparities are pronounced, with […]

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• Working Paper No. 1089
  August 07, 2025

  Rising Temperatures, Falling Yields: The Effect of Climate Shocks on Olive Oil Production in Palestine

  Yousuf Daas, Sameh Hallaq, Kenichi Kashiwagi, and Keiichi Ogawa
  Abstract

  This study investigates the effect of climate shocks on olive oil production in Palestine, a region acutely vulnerable to both environmental change and political instability. We estimate the influences of temperature and rainfall fluctuations on four key outcomes: the olive-to-oil yield ratio, extracted oil quantity, cultivated olive volume, and olive oil prices. Our findings reveal […]

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• Working Paper No. 1088
  August 01, 2025

  The Job Guarantee: Lessons from Argentina’s Jefes Plan and Its Reform

  Agustín Mario
  Abstract

  According to current macroeconomic models, there is a need to maintain a natural rate of unemployment to contain inflation. Put simply, unemployment is considered an (inevitable) cost of price stability. Even some Post Keynesian economists believe the so-called balance-of-payments (BOP) constraint imposes a trade-off between inflation and unemployment in developing countries. On the contrary, what […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1088 PDF (754.35 KB)
• Policy Note No. 2025/5
  July 30, 2025

  Working Harder, Paying Less: Wage Suppression in Greece

  Vlassis Missos and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  The state of the labor market in Greece exemplifies the socioeconomic damage caused by austerity.[i] More than 15 years into a recession that has proven both deep and enduring, signs of a full recovery remain absent. Declining living standards, an increased tax burden, and the deterioration of public infrastructure and services have all contributed to […]

  Download Policy Note 2025/5 PDF (643.45 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1087
  July 30, 2025

  A Model of External Debt Sustainability and Monetary Hierarchy

  Nicolás M. Burotto
  Abstract

  The author develops a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy to identify two key vulnerabilities that prevent emerging markets from fully integrating into global markets: high financial integration costs and their low position in the international monetary hierarchy. These vulnerabilities make them susceptible to financial traps, jeopardize debt sustainability, and increase volatility. He […]

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• Working Paper No. 1086
  July 29, 2025

  Financial Fragility Without Financial Instability

  Leonardo Burlamaqui
  Abstract

  Between the late 1990s and mid-2000s, China’s banking sector underwent a profound yet largely underappreciated transformation—arguably one of the most consequential episodes of financial restructuring in recent economic history. This paper analyzes the Chinese banking reform process through a Minskyian lens, with particular attention to the conceptual ambiguity between financial fragility and financial instability in […]

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• Working Paper No. 1085
  July 17, 2025

  Fiscal Deficit and Term Structure of Interest Rate Links on Corporate Investment

  Lekha S. Chakraborty and C. Prasanth
  Abstract

  Using high-frequency macro data from a financially deregulated regime, this paper examines whether there is any evidence of financial crowding out in India. The macroeconomic channel through which financial crowding out occurs is the link between the fiscal deficit and the interest rate determination. The results revealed that the fiscal deficit does not significantly determine […]

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• Working Paper No. 1084
  July 09, 2025

  MMT: Heuristics versus Paradigm Shift?

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  This is a revised version of the keynote address presented at the FDR library for the Levy Institute Summer Seminar on Money, Finance, and Public Policy on June 20th, 2025.

  Download Working Paper No. 1084 PDF (222.28 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1083
  June 26, 2025

  Integrating the Social Reproduction of Labor into Macroeconomic Theory: Unpaid Caregiving and Productivity in Paid Production

  Mark Setterfield
  Abstract

  The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the integration of unpaid caregiving in the household into short- and long-term macroeconomic theory and, in particular, the theoretical structure of production on the supply side of the economy. The ambition of the project is to furnish a general theoretical representation of how unpaid caregiving and […]

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• Policy Note No. 2025/4
  May 22, 2025

  Ratings Agencies Downgrade the Dollar’s Exorbitant Privilege

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  They are at it again. Moody’s has finally joined the other two ratings agencies in downgrading US government debt. Standard & Poor’s downgrade was first in 2011[1], while Fitch waited until 2023. Now they unanimously give US budgeting a vote of no confidence.[2] They’re sending the message that America must get its fiscal house in […]

  Download Policy Note 2025/4 PDF (584.34 KB)
• Research Project Report
  May 20, 2025

  Investing in Early Childhood Education and Care Services in Jordan

  İpek Ilkkaracan, Ayse Aylin Bayar, Luiza Nassif Pires, Thomas Masterson, and Ajit Zacharias
  Abstract

  Written in October 2022, through a collaboration between Istanbul Technical University (ITU) and the Levy Economics Institute in New York by Ipek Ilkkaracan (ITU), Ayse Aylin Bayar (ITU), Luiza Nassif Pires (Levy), Tom Masterson (Levy), and Ajit Zacharias (Levy). We are grateful to Hazar Asfoura from UN Women Jordan for her careful readings of various […]

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