Publications

1689 publications found

• Policy Notes May 22, 2025

  Ratings Agencies Downgrade the Dollar’s Exorbitant Privilege

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  They are at it again. Moody’s has finally joined the other two ratings agencies in downgrading US government debt. Standard & Poor’s downgrade was first in 2011[1], while Fitch waited until 2023. Now they unanimously give US budgeting a vote of no confidence.[2] They’re sending the message that America must get its fiscal house in […]

• Research Project Report May 20, 2025

  Investing in Early Childhood Education and Care Services in Jordan

  İpek Ilkkaracan, Ayse Aylin Bayar, Luiza Nassif Pires, Thomas Masterson, and Ajit Zacharias
  Abstract

  Written in October 2022, through a collaboration between Istanbul Technical University (ITU) and the Levy Economics Institute in New York by Ipek Ilkkaracan (ITU), Ayse Aylin Bayar (ITU), Luiza Nassif Pires (Levy), Tom Masterson (Levy), and Ajit Zacharias (Levy). We are grateful to Hazar Asfoura from UN Women Jordan for her careful readings of various […]

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• Policy Notes May 20, 2025

  What Do We Save When We DOGE the Government?

  Mark Silverman, and Yeva Nersisyan
  Abstract

  The second Trump administration has seemingly added a new term to the English vocabulary – getting DOGE-ed. Almost every week we hear about another government agency getting the DOGE treatment, i.e., firing personnel, closing down offices, etc. The Department of Government Efficiency is supposedly making our government more efficient and hence saving the taxpayers some […]

• Working Paper No. 1082 May 12, 2025

  Growth vs. Discipline: Italy’s Fiscal Dilemmas in a Stock-Flow Consistent Model

  Francesco Zezza, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  This paper investigates the implications of the European Union’s revised fiscal governance framework for Italy, a country facing the dual challenge of high public debt and persistent economic stagnation. Using a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) macroeconometric model of the Italian economy (MITA), we assess the medium-term macroeconomic implications of the government Medium-term Fiscal-Structural Plan, and whether […]

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• One-Pager No. 73 May 05, 2025

  The Incoming Recession: Are Imports the Real Culprit?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The preliminary estimates for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 show an annualized contraction rate of 0.28 percent, along with an extraordinary increase in imports of 41.3 percent. Most commentators rushed to indicate that the contraction was due to the rise in imports, as, for instance, with the recent Reuters headline stating […]

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• Policy Notes April 21, 2025

  Remembering Pope Francis’s Call for a Universal Basic Wage

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva
  Abstract

  On April 21, 2025, a day after Easter Sunday, the world mourned the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis. Five years earlier, on Easter Sunday, April 12, 2020—amid the devastating COVID-19 pandemic—he issued a powerful plea for economic justice, urging leaders to address the deepening crisis of insecurity faced by workers. His call for a universal […]

  Download Policy Note 2025/2 PDF (207.42 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1081 April 21, 2025

  The Rise and Rise of Feminist Macroeconomics: Who’s Recognizing?

  Günseli Berik, and Ebru Kongar
  Abstract

  Macroeconomics is arguably the most male-dominated field within the discipline of economics. Since the mid-1990s, feminist economists have thoroughly and meticulously challenged this field through empirical and theoretical analyses and proposed alternative starting points, frameworks, and models. We evaluate the contributions of five scholars—Nilüfer Çağatay, Diane Elson, Caren Grown, Stephanie Seguino, and Elissa Braunstein—who have […]

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• Policy Notes April 21, 2025

  Trump’s Tariffs: Ending Globalization

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The Trump administration is reintroducing a number of 40-year-old, Reagan-era economic and military policies, but is particularly preoccupied with the imposition of tariffs for all of the country’s imports. Trump, in his inaugural address, placed significant emphasis on what the imposition of tariffs would represent, in his view: “Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich […]

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• Working Paper No. 1080 April 04, 2025

  Protecting Social Security: The Case Against Extending the Full Retirement Age

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  The Social Security “full retirement age” (FRA) is the age at which retirement income benefits are available without reduction for early commencement. Presently, that age is 67 for those born in 1960 or later. This paper is about the unfair and unnecessary threat to reduce Social Security retirement income benefits (Romig 2023) by extending the […]

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• Working Paper No. 1079 April 04, 2025

  Job Allocation in the Levy Institute Microsimulation Model

  Brandon Istenes
  Abstract

  The Levy Institute Microsimulation Model (LIMM) is a tool used for policy simulations to estimate ex-ante the employment and income effects of sectoral investments. In Istenes (2023), a simple implementation of the LIMM for New York State initially had difficulty producing realistic conditional distributions of allocated jobs. This paper identifies the sources of that problem, […]

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• Working Paper No. 1078 April 01, 2025

  “A Concentration of Private Power without Equal in History”

  William Van Lear, and Daniel Hutchinson
  Abstract

  This manuscript presents a detailed summary and reassessment of the 1941 final report of the Temporary National Economic Committee (TNEC). We portion the manuscript into four major parts: background, major themes, assessment of the report, and additional analysis and reflection. In the first section, we cover what compelled the government’s investigation and we identify the […]

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• Strategic Analysis March 26, 2025

  Greece: Growing on an Unsustainable Path

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Greece has been among the fastest growing economies among the EU member states in the post-COVID-19 period. However, in a previous (February 2024) report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza raised serious concerns regarding Greece’s dependency on imports. In their latest report, the authors argue that these problems have worsened, and the […]

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• Public Policy Brief No. 158 March 04, 2025

  That “Vision Thing”: Formulating a Winning Policy Agenda

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva, and L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  For a PDF version of this Public Policy Brief, please click here. There are many ways to lose a presidential election, and pundits have come up with a long list: President Biden hung on too long; voters still weren’t ready for a female of color—too many are racist and sexist; too many leftists supported third […]

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• Working Paper No. 1077 February 11, 2025

  A Critical Examination of the “China Collapse” Narrative

  Yan Liang
  Abstract

  Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy—namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and de-coupling/de-risking. It argues that while deflationary pressure is present, consumer demand has been improving as the property market stabilized and policies to bolster domestic demand […]

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• Working Paper No. 1076 February 07, 2025

  The Rise of the Modern Monetary System

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  This working paper integrates the credit money approach (associated with Post Keynesian endogenous money theory) with the state money approach (associated with Modern Money Theory) by drawing on Wray’s 1990 book (Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies: The Endogenous Money Approach, Edward Elgar), his 1998 book (Understanding Modern Money: the Key to Full Employment and […]

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• Working Paper No. 1075 January 23, 2025

  The High Cost of the Strong Peso and Its Temporary Nature: The Case of Mexico

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The article analyzes why exchange rate stability has been prioritized in Mexico and why the national currency has appreciated; which policies and factors have made this possible, the costs and consequences of the strong peso, and its sustainability and temporality are also examined. Mexico’s economy does not have the endogenous conditions necessary to maintain such […]

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• Working Paper No. 1074 December 24, 2024

  Political Conflict, Green Capabilities, and Growth Patterns in a Kaleckian Small Open Economy

  José Eduardo Alatorre, Gabriel Porcile, Julia Juarez, and Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
  Abstract

  The paper presents a Kaleckian extended model exploring sustainable development, defined as growth that is economically stable, socially inclusive, and environmentally respectful. The model links CO2 emission trends with public investments in green capabilities, represented by the share of renewables in total energy supply. It incorporates three key actors: green capitalists (G), brown capitalists (B), […]

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• Working Paper No. 1073 December 18, 2024

  Frankenstein in Fact and Fiction

  Robert Skidelsky
  Abstract

  This paper is based on remarks delivered at the EDI Keynote Lecture at Bard College, November 19th, 2024: ‘Frankenstein in Fact and Fiction.’ View a recording of the lecture on YouTube. As we all know, Frankenstein was the scientist in Mary Shelley’s 1818 novel of the same name, who invented a human machine—intended to be a […]

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• Working Paper No. 1072 December 12, 2024

  Macro-Financial Models of Canadian Dollar Interest Rate Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the dynamics of Canadian dollar–denominated (CAD) interest rate swap yields. It applies autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models, using monthly time series data, to estimate the effects of the current short-term interest rate and other relevant macro-financial variables on interest rate swap yields. It shows that the current short-term interest rate is a […]

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• Working Paper No. 1071 December 10, 2024

  Tilting at Windmills

  James K. Galbraith, and Pavlina R. Tcherneva
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 14, May 2023 The Central Bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, has a dual mandate to maintain both full employment and price stability. However, inflation-fighting had always eclipsed the full employment objective without much accountability. Today, the Federal Reserve provides regular testimony before Congress on how […]

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• Working Paper No. 1070 December 10, 2024

  Notes on Money as Technology

  Raúl A. Carrillo
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 20, June 2024 Scholars and affiliates of the Levy Economics Institute have long demonstrated a granular understanding of the “operations” of money, which entails understanding the financial system’s law and technology (Grey 2019, Tymoigne 2014, Fullwiler 2010, Bell and Wray 2002-3, Bell 2000). During the dot-com bubble, many […]

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• Working Paper No. 1069 December 10, 2024

  Tax Credits Are Industrial Policy

  Chirag Lala
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 19, March 2024 The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is criticized for “derisking” private investment by increasing the gains to private firms. The derisking critique argues that the IRA insufficiently disciplines private firms; it does not utilize legal or financial penalties which would force firms to undertake green investment […]

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• Working Paper No. 1068 December 10, 2024

  Monetary Power and Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises

  Karina Lima
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 17, March 2024 This paper challenges the prevailing view in the sovereign debt literature by arguing that sovereign debt markets, in many respects, behave similarly to other credit markets. These markets are hierarchical rather than flat, inherently hybrid in nature, blending elements of public order and private markets, […]

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• Working Paper No. 1067 December 06, 2024

  Revisiting the Foreign Debt Problem and the “External Constraint” in the Periphery

  Ndongo Samba Sylla
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 16, March 2024 Most debates and policy proposals about Global South countries’ external debt problem take for granted the view that it is normal for their governments to issue debts denominated in foreign currencies. This paper tries to challenge this widely held and usually unquestioned assumption by relying […]

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