Publications

Reports analyzing US economic performance and policies, based on our proprietary macro model

56 publications found, searching for 'Strategic Analysis '

• Strategic Analysis March 26, 2025

  Greece: Growing on an Unsustainable Path

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Greece has been among the fastest growing economies among the EU member states in the post-COVID-19 period. However, in a previous (February 2024) report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza raised serious concerns regarding Greece’s dependency on imports. In their latest report, the authors argue that these problems have worsened, and the […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2025 PDF (1.07 MB)
• Strategic Analysis November 05, 2024

  Economic Challenges of the New U.S. Administration

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  On the eve of the 2024 US presidential election, the authors share their latest macroeconomic projections using the Levy Institute’s tailored stock-flow consistent model and evaluate two alternative policy scenarios, depending upon the next occupant of the White House: (1) a significant increase in import tariffs and decrease in the marginal tax rate, and (2) a substantial increase in government expenditure paired with an increase in the marginal tax rate.

  Download Strategic Analysis November 2024 PDF (673.85 KB)
• Strategic Analysis June 04, 2024

  U.S. Economic Outlook: Prospects for 2024 and Beyond

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Giuliano T. Yajima, and Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza discuss the rapid recovery of the US economy in the post-pandemic period. They find that robust consumption and investment and a relaxation of fiscal policy were the key drivers of accelerated GDP growth—however, the signs that the […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, June 2024 PDF (981.17 KB)
• Strategic Analysis February 15, 2024

  Greece: Time to Reduce the Dependency on Imports

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano T. Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza investigate the determinants of the recent performance of the Greek economy. Despite geopolitical instability from the continuing Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza wars and higher-than-expected inflation rates, the country has managed to register the highest growth rates among eurozone member-states in 2021 and […]

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• Strategic Analysis July 20, 2023

  Will the US Debt Ceiling Deal Derail the Pandemic Recovery?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, Michalis Nikiforos, and Giuliano Toshiro Yajima
  Abstract

  In this Strategic Analysis, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Michalis Nikiforos, Giuliano T. Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza discuss how the current state and structural features of the US economy might affect its future trajectory. The recent recovery after the pandemic has been remarkable, when compared to previous cycles, and offers evidence of the efficacy of fiscal policy. […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, July 2023 PDF (1.54 MB)
• Strategic Analysis October 13, 2022

  Ελλάδα: Ανάκαμψη, ή μια νέα Ύφεση;

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  Σε αυτή τη στρατηγική ανάλυση, ο Πρόεδρος του Ινστιτούτου Δημήτρης Παπαδημητρίου, ο ερευνητής Gennaro Zezza και ο επιστημονικός συνεργάτης Νίκος Ροδουσάκης αναλύουν τις μεσοπρόθεσμες προοπτικές για την ελληνική οικονομία, σε μια περίοδο αυξανόμενης αβεβαιότητας, λόγω των γεωπολιτικών αναταραχών που προέρχονται από την Ρώσο-Ουκρανική σύγκρουση με αντίκτυπό το υψηλό κόστος ενέργειας και αυξημένων διεθνών τιμών εισαγόμενων […]

  Download ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΣΤΡΑΤΗΓΙΚΗ ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗ 10 2022 PDF (1.27 MB)
• Strategic Analysis October 13, 2022

  Greece: Recovery, or Another Recession?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  In this strategic analysis, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza, and Research Associate Nikolaos Rodousakis discuss the medium-term prospects for the Greek economy in a time of increasing uncertainty—due to the geopolitical turbulence emanating from the Ukraine–Russian conflict, with its impact on the cost of energy, as well as the increase in […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, October 2022 PDF (1.18 MB)
• Strategic Analysis August 11, 2022

  Avoiding a Recession

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Michalis Nikiforos, and Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza analyze how and why the US economy has achieved a swift recovery in comparison with the last few economic cycles. This recovery has nevertheless been accompanied by significant increases in the trade deficit and inflation. Papadimitriou, Nikiforos, and […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, August 2022 PDF (2.20 MB)
• Strategic Analysis March 01, 2022

  Is Greece on the Road to Economic Recovery?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  In this strategic analysis, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Gennaro Zezza, and Research Associate Nikos Rodousakis analyze how the Greek economy started to recover from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the prospects of continuing and sustaining its recovery. A key contribution is linked to tourism, which increased significantly in 2021, notwithstanding […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2022 PDF (1.33 MB)
• Strategic Analysis March 01, 2022

  Είναι η Ελλάδα στον δρόμο της οικονομικής ανάκαμψης;

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  Σε αυτή τη στρατηγική ανάλυση, ο Πρόεδρος του Ινστιτούτου Δημήτρης Β. Παπαδημητρίου, ο ερευνητής Gennaro Zezza και ο επιστημονικός συνεργάτης Νίκος Ροδουσάκης αναλύουν πώς η ελληνική οικονομία άρχισε να ανακάμπτει από το σοκ της πανδημίας COVID-19 και τις προοπτικές συνέχισης και διατήρησης της ανάκαμψής της. Ο βασικός παράγων είναι ο τουρισμός, ο οποίος αυξήθηκε σημαντικά […]

  Download Στρατηγικη Αναλυση, Μάρτιος 2022 PDF (653.70 KB)
• Strategic Analysis June 17, 2021

  The Pandemic, the Stimulus, and the Future Prospects for the US Economy

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Research Scholars Michalis Nikiforos and Gennaro Zezza analyze how the US economy was affected by the pandemic and its prospects for recovery. Their baseline simulation using the Institute’s stock-flow macroeconometric model shows a significant pickup in the growth rate in 2021 as a result of the American […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, June 2021 PDF (1.64 MB)
• Strategic Analysis October 06, 2020

  When Will Italy Recover?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Francesco Zezza
  Abstract

  Italy was the first European country to be impacted by COVID-19, rapidly overwhelming healthcare facilities in some areas and prompting the government to shut down nonessential economic activities, with an inevitable (asymmetric) impact on production and income. Though the gradual reopening of most business activities began in 2020Q3, the extent of the shutdown’s damage is […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, October 2020 PDF (540.95 KB)
• Strategic Analysis January 23, 2020

  Prospects and Challenges for the US Economy

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  This Strategic Analysis examines the US economy’s prospects for 2020–23 and the risks that lie ahead. The baseline projection generated by the Levy Institute’s stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model shows that, given current fiscal arrangements and the slowdown in the global economy, the pace of the US recovery will slacken somewhat, with a growth rate that […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, January 2020 PDF (1.00 MB)
• Strategic Analysis January 17, 2020

  Greece: In Search of Investors

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  2019 marked the third year of the continuing economic recovery in Greece, with real GDP and employment rising, albeit at modest rates. In this Strategic Analysis we note that the expansion has mainly been driven by net exports, with tourism playing a dominant role. However, household consumption and investment are still too far below their […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, January 2020 PDF (786.47 KB)
• Strategic Analysis April 15, 2019

  Can Redistribution Help Build a More Stable Economy?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  Although the ongoing recovery is about to become the longest in the history of the United States, it is also the weakest in postwar history, and as we enter the second quarter of 2019, many clouds have gathered. This Strategic Analysis considers the recent trajectory, the present state, and the future prospects of the US […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2019 PDF (1.06 MB)
• Strategic Analysis April 13, 2018

  “America First,” Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability

  Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  The US economy has been expanding continuously for almost nine years, making the current recovery the second longest in postwar history. However, the current recovery is also the slowest recovery of the postwar period. This Strategic Analysis presents the medium-run prospects, challenges, and contradictions for the US economy using the Levy Institute’s stock-flow consistent macroeconometric […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2018 PDF (1.30 MB)
• Strategic Analysis April 14, 2017

  The Trump Effect: Is This Time Different?

  Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  From a macroeconomic point of view, 2016 was an ordinary year in the post–Great Recession period. As in prior years, the conventional forecasts predicted that this would be the year the economy would finally escape from the “new normal” of secular stagnation. But just as in every previous year, the forecasts were confounded by the […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2017 PDF (403.41 KB)
• Strategic Analysis March 07, 2016

  Destabilizing an Unstable Economy

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  Our latest strategic analysis reveals that the US economy remains fragile because of three persistent structural issues: weak demand for US exports, fiscal conservatism, and a four-decade trend in rising income inequality. It also faces risks from stagnation in the economies of the United States’ trading partners, appreciation of the dollar, and a contraction in […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2016 PDF (1.11 MB)
• Strategic Analysis May 14, 2015

  Η δημοσιονομική λιτότητα, η ανατίμηση του δολαρίου και τα προβλήματα κατανομής θα οδηγήσουν στον εκτροχιασμό της οικονομίας των ΗΠΑ

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  Στην τελευταία στρατηγική ανάλυση, η ομάδα του μακροοικονομετρικού υποδείγματος του Ινστιτούτου εξετάζει την πρόσφατη, αναιμική ανάκαμψη της αμερικανικής οικονομίας. Οι συγγραφείς εντοπίζουν τρία διαρθρωτικά εμπόδια—την αδύναμη απόδοση των καθαρών εξαγωγών, την επικράτηση του δημοσιονομικού συντηρητισμού και τα υψηλά επίπεδα εισοδηματικής ανισότητας, τα οποία, σε συνδυασμό με τη συνεχιζόμενη απομόχλευση του τομέα των νοικοκυριών, εξηγούν τον […]

  Download Στρατηγικη Αναλυση, Μάιος 2015 PDF (1.01 MB)
• Strategic Analysis May 14, 2015

  Fiscal Austerity, Dollar Appreciation, and Maldistribution Will Derail the US Economy

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  In this latest Strategic Analysis, the Institute’s Macro Modeling Team examines the current, anemic recovery of the US economy. The authors identify three structural obstacles—the weak performance of net exports, a prevailing fiscal conservatism, and high income inequality—that, in combination with continued household sector deleveraging, explain the recovery’s slow pace. Their baseline macro scenario shows […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, May 2015 PDF (1.02 MB)
• Strategic Analysis April 25, 2014

  Is Rising Inequality a Hindrance to the US Economic Recovery?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  The US economy has been expanding moderately since the official end of the Great Recession in 2009. The budget deficit has been steadily decreasing, inflation has remained in check, and the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.7 percent. The restrictive fiscal policy stance of the past three years has exerted a negative influence on aggregate […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2014 PDF (733.90 KB)
• Strategic Analysis April 25, 2014

  Αποτελεί η αυξανόμενη ανισότητα εμπόδιο στην οικονομική ανάκαμψη των ΗΠΑ;

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  Η οικονομία των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών αναπτύσσεται με μέτριο ρυθμό μετά από την επίσημη λήξη της Ύφεσης το 2009. Το έλλειμμα του προϋπολογισμού μειώνεται σταθερά, ο πληθωρισμός βρίσκεται υπό έλεγχο και το ποσοστό ανεργίας μειώθηκε από 9,8% στο 6,7% (τον Μάρτιο του 2014). Η περιοριστική δημοσιονομική πολιτική των τελευταίων τριών ετών έχει ασκήσει αρνητική επίδραση στη […]

  Download Στρατηγικη Αναλυση, Απρίλιος 2014 PDF (921.28 KB)
• Strategic Analysis October 16, 2013

  Rescuing the Recovery: Prospects and Policies for the United States

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  If the Congressional Budget Office’s recent projections of government revenues and outlays come to pass, the United States will not grow fast enough to bring down the unemployment rate between now and 2016. The public sector deficit will decline from present levels, endangering the sustainability of the recovery. But as this new Strategic Analysis shows, […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, October 2013 PDF (908.04 KB)
• Strategic Analysis October 16, 2013

  Η εδραίωση της ανάκαμψης: Προοπτικές και πολιτικές για τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  Στην περίπτωση που επαληθευτούν οι προβλέψεις του Γραφείο Προϋπολογισμού του Κογκρέσου για τα κρατικά έσοδα και τις δαπάνες, η οικονομία των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών δεν θα μπορέσει να αναπτυχθεί αρκετά γρήγορα προκειμένου να μειωθεί το ποσοστό της ανεργίας από σήμερα έως το 2016. Το έλλειμμα θα μειωθεί από τα σημερινά του επίπεδα, θέτοντας σε κίνδυνο τη […]

  Download Στρατηγική Ανάλυση, Οκτώβριος 2013 PDF (1.94 MB)