Publications

Working Paper No. 969 | September 2020

The Empirics of UK Gilts’ Yields

This paper analyzes the nominal yields of UK gilt-edged securities (“gilts”) based on a Keynesian perspective, which holds that the short-term interest rate is the primary driver of the long-term interest rate. Quarterly data are used to model gilts’ nominal yields. These models bring to light the complex dynamics relating the nominal yields on gilts to the short-term interest rate, inflation, the growth of industrial production, and the government debt ratio. The results show that the short-term interest rate has a crucial influence on the nominal yields on gilts, even after controlling for various factors. Contrary to widely held views, a higher government debt ratio does not lead to higher nominal yields.

Publication Highlight

Testimony
Statement of Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray to the House Budget Committee, US House of Representatives
Reexamining the Economic Costs of Debt
Author(s): L. Randall Wray, Yeva Nersisyan
November 2019

Quick Search

Search in: