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Working Paper No. 238The Macroeconomics of Industrial Strategy
This paper explores some of the links between macroeconomic policy and industrial strategy. The perspective of the present paper is to emphasize the role of the output and investment activities of enterprises rather than the general focus on the labor market in the determination of economic performance. We have explored this aspect in some detail […] -
Policy Notes No. 6What to Do with the Surplus
Neither Congress nor the president is on the right track. Rather than protecting the surplus, we should be increasing spending and cutting taxes to contain the looming world recession. -
Public Policy Brief Highlight No. 40Overcoming America’s Infrastructure Deficit
Condemned bridges, dilapidated school buildings, contaminated water supplies, and other infrastructure shortcomings threaten American growth, productivity, and prosperity. The authors of this brief propose a plan for financing infrastructure projects that is designed to have minimal effect on the federal budget and to promote sound fiscal operation. Federal zero-interest mortgage loans to state and local […] -
Public Policy Brief Highlight No. 39
The Unmeasured Labor Force
Is the current labor market as tight as official statistics would seem to indicate? If incumbent workers increase their hours of work, it is irrelevant to the unemployment rate, but hardly irrelevant to the level of labor supply. The authors of this brief find that job insecurity and stagnating wages have made Americans willing to […] -
Public Policy Brief No. 40Overcoming America’s Infrastructure Deficit
Condemned bridges, dilapidated school buildings, contaminated water supplies, and other infrastructure shortcomings threaten American growth, productivity, and prosperity. The authors of this brief propose a plan for financing infrastructure projects that is designed to have minimal effect on the federal budget and to promote sound fiscal operation. Federal zero-interest mortgage loans to state and local […] -
Working Paper No. 237
Speed of Technical Progress and Length of the Average Interjob Period
The mean duration of unemployment approximately doubled in the United States between the early 1950s and the mid-1990s, with most of the increase occurring since the early 1970s. Using a simple model linking the average duration of unemployment with the speed of technical change, and aggregate time-series data, the authors find strong evidence that both […] -
Working Paper No. 236
An Important Inconsistency at the Heart of the Standard Macroeconomic Model
The standard neoclassical model is the foundation of most mainstream macroeconomics. Its basic structure dominates the analyis of macroeconomic phenomena, the teaching of the subject, and even the formation of economic policy. And, of course, the modern quantity theory of money and its attendant monetarist prescriptions are grounded in the model’s strict separation between real […] -
Working Paper No. 235
East Asia Is Not Mexico
What was different about the collapse of the Asian emerging markets in 1997? The free fall of the Mexican peso and the collapse of the Mexican Bolsa produced a “Tequila effect” that spread through most of South America. But it did not create a sell-off in the global financial markets similar to that which occurred […] -
Public Policy Brief No. 39
The Unmeasured Labor Force
Is the current labor market as tight as official statistics would seem to indicate? If incumbent workers increase their hours of work, it is irrelevant to the unemployment rate, but hardly irrelevant to the level of labor supply. The authors of this brief find that job insecurity and stagnating wages have made Americans willing to […] -
Policy Notes No. 5
The Fed Should Lower Interest Rates More
Some analysts have argued against monetary ease, fearing that it might fuel a speculative boom. Alas, given the recent substantial “market correction,” this objection may safely be put away. -
Report No. 2
Report May 1998
Alice M. Rivlin, vice chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and other participants at the Levy Institute’s annual Minsky conference on financial structure discuss the causes and worldwide effects of the Asian crisis and policies to prevent similar crises in the future. Contents: Editorial Can We Grow Faster? (Stephanie Bell […] -
Working Paper No. 234
Yes, “It” Did Happen Again
The title of Visiting Senior Scholar Jan Kregel’s working paper is a reference to Hyman P. Minsky’s book Can “It” Happen Again? The Minskian “it” is the debt deflation scenario that led to the Great Depression, and Kregel makes the case that the recent Asian crisis is just such a scenario. Minsky defined three types […]