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BlogEuro Crisis Sees Reloading Of Germany’s Current Account Surplus
June 26, 2013 Who is running the largest current account surplus in the world? China? Saudi Arabia? Both wrong! These are only the number two and three countries. China had a record $420bn surplus in 2008, but that imbalance has more than halved since. As a share of GDP China’s external imbalance is down from ten to two-and-a-half [...] Blog -
Working Paper No. 767Germany and the Euroland Crisis
June 21, 2013 This paper investigates Germany’s vulnerability to the ongoing Euroland crisis. In 2010–11, Germany experienced a strong rebound from the global financial crisis of 2008–09. The Euroland crisis then meant record...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 767
Η Γερμανία και η κρίση στην ευρωζώνη
June 21, 2013 Η εργασία αυτή διερευνά την ευπάθεια της Γερμανίας στη συνεχιζόμενη κρίση της ευρωζώνης. Την περίοδο 2010–11, η Γερμανία ανέκαμψε από την παγκόσμια οικονομική κρίση του 2008-09. Η κρίση της ευρωζώνης...more Publication -
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Fed Tapering and Bullard’s Dissent
June 20, 2013 (Updated) Here’s what’s new from yesterday’s FOMC statement and Bernanke’s press conference: the Fed has indicated that asset purchases (QE) will end when unemployment hits 7 percent. (Note that that’s different from the point at which the Fed will begin considering raising short-term interest rates — previously linked to a threshold of 6.5 percent unemployment.) [...] Blog -
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Coming Soon: Another London Whale Shocker?
June 19, 2013 Remember last summer? The London Whale, that blockbuster adventure thriller, triggered one chill after another as the high-risk action at JPMorgan Chase was revealed. Today, the threats posed by megabanks remain just below the surface — no crisis at the moment — but they’re equally dangerous. A major sequel this year cannot be ruled out. [...] Blog -
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Galbraith on the Greek Crisis and the “Very Patient and Stubborn Profession”
June 18, 2013 Last week, James Galbraith was supposed to be interviewed by ERT, the public broadcaster in Greece. Events intervened when the Greek government ordered that ERT be shut down, and so instead of sitting for the interview, Galbraith delivered this speech in Thessaloniki in front of a large gathering assembled in response to the closure (ERT [...] Blog -
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A Fiscal Fallacy?
June 17, 2013 We have been advocates of the theory that fiscal tightening is threatening economic recovery (last week, for example). John Taylor objects to the view that fiscal tightness has been the key to the slowness of growth in the recovery. In his blog, he states, “As a matter of national income and product accounting, it is true [...] Blog -
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New Book: The Rise and Fall of Money Manager Capitalism
June 17, 2013 A new book by the Levy Institute’s Randall Wray and Éric Tymoigne (release date July 31): The Rise and Fall of Money Manager Capitalism: Minsky’s half century from World War Two to the Great Recession The book studies the trends that led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, as well as the [...] Blog -
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End of Week Links
June 14, 2013 Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren on the risk of financial runs and the implications for financial stability* 22nd Annual Minsky Conference (video) *(Link has changed: see below the fold of this post for Rosengren video) Paying Paul and Robbing No One: An Eminent Domain Solution for Underwater Mortgage Debt New York Fed ‘Financialization’ as a Cause [...] Blog -
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Papadimitriou: No End in Sight for Greece’s Economic Crisis (Greek)
June 13, 2013 In the context of the IMF’s latest release in its mea culpa series, this time on the problems with the Greek bailout plan (pdf), Dimitri Papadimitriou appeared on Skai TV to discuss the worsening crisis in Greece, the failure of austerity, and the need to renegotiate the bailout deal. Segment (in Greek) begins at 9:35 [...] Blog -
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Has There Been a Fiscal Shock in the United States Recently?
June 12, 2013 I used a figure like the one above in a talk that I gave at the Eastern Economic Association 39th Annual Conference last month on the topic “Heterodox Shocks.” (The diagram above incorporates data released at the end of last month.) Total government spending in the US, shown in red, continues to fall as a [...] Blog -
Working Paper No. 766
Heterodox Shocks
June 11, 2013 Should shocks be part of our macro-modeling tool kit—for example, as a way of modeling discontinuities in fiscal policy or big moves in the financial markets? What are shocks, and...more Publication -
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Why Is the Federal Reserve Talking about “Tapering”?
June 11, 2013 Ryan Avent wonders why, with unemployment too high and inflation too low — even by the Federal Reserve’s own previously articulated standards — there is so much talk of “tapering” coming from members of the Open Market Committee (talk of slowly drawing down the Fed’s asset purchases). Avent mentions the possibility that considerations other than [...] Blog -
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UK Debate and the Facts Moving in Opposite Directions
June 07, 2013 Today in the Guardian, Philip Pilkington notices the British Labour party potentially inching away from their scaled-down proposal for a “job guarantee,” an idea fleshed out by Hyman Minsky: Minsky’s theories of financial instability suggested that capitalist economies were prone to serious downturns in which huge amounts of the labour force would find themselves unemployed. [...] Blog -
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More London Whale Postmortem
June 07, 2013 The US Senate investigation of JPMorgan Chase’s Chief Investment Office (CIO), and more specifically of the operations of its Synthetic Credit Portfolio (SCP) unit — otherwise known as the “London Whale” trades — concluded with the release of their full report in March. The report alleges that the CIO operated without a clear mandate and [...] Blog -
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QE vs the Recovery Act: How Does Our Approach to Stimulus Affect Inequality?
June 06, 2013 Annie Lowrey recently renewed the ongoing discussion over whether the Federal Reserve’s attempts at reviving the economy through quantitative easing (QE) are exacerbating inequality. The abbreviated version of the argument is that QE operates mainly through boosting asset prices, leading to gains in stocks and housing that largely benefit those at the top. If that’s [...] Blog -
One-Pager No. 38Χρηματοοικονομική μεταρρύθμιση και η «φάλαινα του Σίτι»
June 05, 2013 Η πρόσφατη έκθεση της μόνιμης υποεπιτροπής της αμερικανικής Γερουσίας για τις έρευνες σχετικά με τις δραστηριότητες της μονάδας Συνθετικού Χαρτοφυλακίου Πιστοδοτήσεων της JPMorgan Chase, που είναι επίσης γνωστή ως η...more Publication -
One-Pager No. 38
Financial Reform and the London Whale
June 05, 2013 The recent report by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations on the operations of JPMorgan Chase’s Synthetic Credit Portfolio unit—aka the London Whale—has brought renewed attention to the risks of...more Publication -
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What Is “Time Poverty” and Why Should You Care?
June 05, 2013 This is how we came up with the official poverty line for the United States, back in the early 1960s: essentially, we put together a very basic diet, figured out the monetary value, and multiplied by three. If a family has less income than that number, adjusted for inflation, they’re poor. There are numerous problems [...] Blog -
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Minsky Abroad
June 03, 2013 Announcing two upcoming conferences, organized as part of the Levy Institute’s international research agenda and in conjunction with the Ford Foundation Project on Financial Instability, which draws on Hyman Minsky’s extensive work on financial governance, the structure of financial systems to ensure stability, and the role of government in achieving a growing and equitable economy: [...] Blog -
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New Frontiers in Financial Wrongdoing and Instability
May 30, 2013 Benjamin Lawsky is the very first Superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services (DFS), a regulatory body created in 2011 through the merger of the New York State Banking and Insurance Departments. Lawsky spoke recently at the Levy Institute’s annual Minsky conference and he began with an appropriately Minskyan tune: There is a [...] Blog -
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The Role of the Fed in the Sustainability of the Long-term Budget
May 29, 2013 As noted, the Congressional Budget Office says that the federal deficit will shrink to 2.1 percent of GDP in two years and then start to grow again after 2015. The most important factor contributing to the widening budget deficit over the next 10 years, according to the CBO, is not Social Security, or even Medicare, [...] Blog -
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This Time Is Indifferent
May 24, 2013 Whether it’s the terrible growth numbers in the eurozone (Eurostat), the revelation of spreadsheet errors in everyone’s favorite debt disaster study (for some of the non-spreadsheet-based problems with the Reinhart-Rogoff approach, see this 2010 working paper), or the fact that the US federal deficit is on track to shrink to a measly 2.1 percent of [...] Blog
