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BlogGross Distraction
August 01, 2011 Bill Gross has weighed in on the debate about excessive sovereign debt, invoking a study produced by Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart that purports to show a negative relation between debt and economic growth. The “Maginot line” is a debt ratio of 90%, beyond which economic growth slows by 1%. Yet Mr. Gross does not [...] Blog -
Blog
GDP Revisions and Our Looming Policy Masochism
July 29, 2011 The economy grew at an unflattering 1.3% annual rate in the second quarter, while first quarter GDP growth has been revised downwards to a wretched 0.4%. Against the backdrop of these abysmal numbers, the US government appears poised to do its best to make matters worse. Even if the debt limit negotiations generate an agreement, [...] Blog -
Blog
A longer-term Keynesian approach to macro policy
July 29, 2011 Many influential mainstream Keynesian economists continue to support high deficits until the nation’s yawning jobs gap is closed. As Laura D’Andrea Tyson observes in a thorough and helpful blog entry posted this morning, this is not a fine-tuning problem requiring a careful weighing of priorities, given the current state of the job market: Like many [...] Blog -
Blog
Will there be a Fed shutdown?
July 28, 2011 In a recent blog piece at the CNBC website, John Carney offers this interpretation of the federal debt ceiling (see also Felix Salmon’s more recent comment): “The debt ceiling applies to the face amount of obligations issued under Chapter 31 of Title 31 of the U.S. Code—basically, Treasury notes and bills and the other standard [...] Blog -
Blog
Private-sector debt ratios still high by historical standards
July 26, 2011 With all the recent coverage of the federal government’s debt-limit impasse, it has been some time since the private sector’s financial picture has received much attention in the popular press. Nonetheless, there seems to be little news, as the most recent flow-of-funds data release from the Fed depicts a continuation of trends that have held [...] Blog -
Working Paper No. 680The Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being: Estimates for Canada, 1999 and 2005
July 26, 2011 This report presents estimates of the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being (LIMEW) for a representative sample of Canadian households in 1999 and 2005. The results indicate that there was...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 679
The Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being, France, 1989 and 2000
July 25, 2011 We construct estimates of the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being for France for the years 1989 and 2000. We also estimate the standard measure of disposable cash income (DI)...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 678
What Ended the Great Depression?
July 25, 2011 Conventional wisdom contends that fiscal policy was of secondary importance to the economic recovery in the 1930s. The recovery is then connected to monetary policy that allowed non-sterilized gold inflows...more Publication -
Blog
Do we need federal debt at all?
July 20, 2011 (Click figure to enlarge.) Could the government loan the money to itself? The federal government is expected reach its debt limit of $14.29 trillion early next month. Normally, the government more or less indirectly sells a large amount of Treasury securities to the Fed, which is technically a private entity, separate from the familiar government [...] Blog -
Working Paper No. 677
The Global Crisis and the Remedial Actions
July 18, 2011 The global financial crisis has now spread across multiple countries and sectors, affecting both financial and real spheres in the advanced as well as the developing economies. This has been...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 676
Quality of Match for Statistical Matches Used in the 1989 and 2000 LIMEW Estimates for France
July 18, 2011 The quality of match for each of four statistical matches used in the LIMEW estimates for France for 1989 and 2000 is described. The first match combines the 1992 Enquête...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 675
The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth
July 18, 2011 This paper traces the rise of export-led growth as a development paradigm and argues that it is exhausted owing to changed conditions in emerging market (EM) and developed economies. The...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 674
Institutional Prerequisites of Financial Fragility within Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis
July 05, 2011 The relevancy of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) in the current (and still unfolding) crisis has been clearly acknowledged by both economists and regulators. While most papers focus on discussing...more Publication -
Blog
Should the Dollar Remain Independent of Gold?
July 01, 2011 (Click figure to enlarge it.) Some “gold bugs” advocate a return to the gold standard, which the United States officially abandoned in the early 1970s. The annual data in the chart above show that the price of gold has risen sharply in both euros and yen since 1999. Meanwhile, the dollar itself has fallen against [...] Blog -
One-Pager No. 10Will the Recovery Continue?
June 21, 2011 With quantitative easing winding down and the latest payroll tax-cut measures set to expire at the end of this year, pressing questions loom about the current state of the US...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 673
Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy
June 13, 2011 We present strong empirical evidence favoring the role of effective demand in the US economy, in the spirit of Keynes and Kalecki. Our inference comes from a statistically well-specified VAR...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 672
Income Distribution in a Monetary Economy
May 27, 2011 The paper provides a novel theory of income distribution and achieves an integration of monetary and value theories along Ricardian lines, extended to a monetary production economy as understood by...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 671
Public Job-creation Programs: The Economic Benefits of Investing in Social Care
May 19, 2011 This paper demonstrates the strong impacts that public job creation in social care provisioning has on employment creation. Furthermore, it shows that mobilizing underutilized domestic labor resources and targeting them...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 670
The Product Space
May 18, 2011 In this paper we look at the economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in the context of structural transformation. We use Hidalgo et al.’s (2007) concept of product space to show the...more Publication -
One-Pager No. 9
Did Problems with SSDI Cause the Output-Jobs Disconnect?
May 17, 2011 The slow recovery of the job market after the recessions of 2001 and 2007–09 has fostered concerns that the link between output growth and job creation has been severed. Between...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 669
Race, Power, and the Subprime/Foreclosure Crisis
May 17, 2011 Economists’ principal explanations of the subprime crisis differ from those developed by noneconomists in that the latter see it as rooted in the US legacy of racial/ethnic inequality, and especially...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 4Μια ανάλυση της εξέλιξης των απόψεων του Κέινς για τη νομισματική πολιτική—από τη «Πραγματεία για το Χρήμα» στη «Γενική Θεωρία»
May 12, 2011 Προς το τέλος του 1930, καθώς το κραχ του Χρηματιστηρίου της Νέας Υόρκης το 1929 είχε αρχίσει να έχει αντίκτυπο στην πραγματική οικονομία των ΗΠΑ πτώση στις τιμές των εμπορευμάτων,...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 4
Was Keynes’s Monetary Policy, Ã Outrance in the Treatise, a Forerunnner of ZIRP and QE? Did He Change His Mind in the General Theory?
May 12, 2011 At the end of 1930, as the 1929 US stock market crash was starting to have an impact on the real economy in the form of falling commodity prices, falling...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 3
A Modest Proposal for Overcoming the Euro Crisis
May 12, 2011 This “Modest Proposal” by authors Varoufakis and Holland outlines a three-pronged, comprehensive solution to the eurozone crisis that simultaneously addresses the three main dimensions of the current crisis in the...more Publication