Publications

204 publications found, searching for 'Fiscal Policy '

• Working Paper No. 1097
  October 08, 2025

  How Fiscal Policy Matters: An Empirical Analysis of the “Crowding-In” Effects of Public Infrastructure Investment in India

  Venkat Hariharan Asha, Ajay Ojha, Sutharson T., and Lekha S. Chakraborty
  Abstract

  Using high-frequency data, the paper analyzes the link between public infrastructure investment and private corporate investment in India for the decade ending 2023–24. We adopt the ARDL model to investigate…more

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• Working Paper No. 1087
  July 30, 2025

  A Model of External Debt Sustainability and Monetary Hierarchy

  Nicolás M. Burotto
  Abstract

  The author develops a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy to identify two key vulnerabilities that prevent emerging markets from fully integrating into global markets: high financial integration…more

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• Working Paper No. 1085
  July 17, 2025

  Fiscal Deficit and Term Structure of Interest Rate Links on Corporate Investment

  Lekha S. Chakraborty and C. Prasanth
  Abstract

  Using high-frequency macro data from a financially deregulated regime, this paper examines whether there is any evidence of financial crowding out in India. The macroeconomic channel through which financial crowding…more

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• Policy Note No. 2025/3
  May 20, 2025

  What Do We Save When We DOGE the Government?

  Mark Silverman and Yeva Nersisyan
  Abstract

  The second Trump administration has seemingly added a new term to the English vocabulary – getting DOGE-ed. Almost every week we hear about another government agency getting the DOGE treatment,…more

  Download Policy Note No. 2025/3 PDF (426.94 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1082
  May 12, 2025

  Growth vs. Discipline: Italy’s Fiscal Dilemmas in a Stock-Flow Consistent Model

  Francesco Zezza and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  This paper investigates the implications of the European Union’s revised fiscal governance framework for Italy, a country facing the dual challenge of high public debt and persistent economic stagnation. Using…more

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• One-Pager No. 73
  May 05, 2025

  The Incoming Recession: Are Imports the Real Culprit?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The preliminary estimates for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 show an annualized contraction rate of 0.28 percent, along with an extraordinary increase in imports of 41.3…more

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• Working Paper No. 1080
  April 04, 2025

  Protecting Social Security: The Case Against Extending the Full Retirement Age

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  The Social Security “full retirement age” (FRA) is the age at which retirement income benefits are available without reduction for early commencement. Presently, that age is 67 for those born…more

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• Working Paper No. 1077
  February 11, 2025

  A Critical Examination of the “China Collapse” Narrative

  Yan Liang
  Abstract

  Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy—namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and…more

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• Working Paper No. 1075
  January 23, 2025

  The High Cost of the Strong Peso and Its Temporary Nature: The Case of Mexico

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The article analyzes why exchange rate stability has been prioritized in Mexico and why the national currency has appreciated; which policies and factors have made this possible, the costs and…more

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• Working Paper No. 1069
  December 10, 2024

  Tax Credits Are Industrial Policy

  Chirag Lala
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 19, March 2024 The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is criticized for “derisking” private investment by increasing the gains to private firms. The derisking…more

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• Working Paper No. 1068
  December 10, 2024

  Monetary Power and Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises

  Karina Lima
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 17, March 2024 This paper challenges the prevailing view in the sovereign debt literature by arguing that sovereign debt markets, in many respects,…more

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• Working Paper No. 1065
  December 06, 2024

  Resource Constraints and Economic Policy

  Yeva Nersisyan
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 09, 2023 This paper explains the MMT approach for evaluating the affordability of spending programs, contrasting it with the mainstream approach. Using the…more

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• Working Paper No. 1064
  December 06, 2024

  Seismic Shifts in Economic Theory and Policy from the Bernanke Doctrine to Modern Money Theory

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva and Éric Tymoigne
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 08, 2022  This paper evaluates the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy and the relative effectiveness of macroeconomic stabilization through the lens of…more

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• Working Paper No. 1063
  December 03, 2024

  Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an SFC Model of the Italian Economy

  Francesco Zezza
  Abstract

  Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–9, there has been a shift in mainstream economic policy modeling toward “realism,” with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models partly diverging from the…more

  Download Working Paper No. 1063 PDF (1.71 MB)
• Working Paper No. 1061
  November 26, 2024

  Modern Money Theory on Fiscal and Monetary Policies

  Éric Tymoigne
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 04, 2022 Drumetz and Pfister make several claims about the inadequacy and fallacies of Modern Money Theory (MMT) and conclude that MMT is…more

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• Working Paper No. 1059
  November 26, 2024

  Three Lessons from Government Spending and the Post-Pandemic Recovery

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 01, 2021 The central lesson of the COVID-19 fiscal response is that money is not scarce. Without delay, governments around the world appropriated…more

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• Policy Note No. 2024/3
  November 07, 2024

  Trump Wins While Americans Vote for Progressive Policies

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva
  Abstract

  On November 5, 2024, American voters sent Donald Trump back to the White House. In 2020, he lost his bid for reelection to Joe Biden, after winning in 2016 against…more

  Download Policy Note 2024/3 PDF (182.86 KB)
• Policy Note No. 2024/1
  October 11, 2024

  The Boy Who Cried Wolf About Government Debt

  Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  In a New York Times editorial, David Leonhardt recounts Aesop’s apocryphal story about the boy and the wolf, warning that while deficit hawks have so far been wrong, the growing government debt will eventually bite. He reports the economic plans of both presidential candidates would add to the debt that will soon exceed GDP and grow to 130 percent of annual output under a President Harris, or 140 percent with a Trump presidency.

  The story of the boy and the wolf was a fable, although it was within the realm of possibility. The fable of the debt wolf is not. While there are real world wolves—Leonhardt mentions climate catastrophe and autocratic leaders, and the authors would add rising inequality and the concentration of economic and political power in the hands of billionaires—authors Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray assert, federal debt is not one of them.

  Download Policy Note 2024/1 PDF (368.08 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1056
  October 07, 2024

  Federal Tax Transfers and Demographic Transition: Balancing Equity and Efficiency

  Lekha S. Chakraborty and Yadawendra Singh
  Abstract

  Against the backdrop of demographic transition in India, the study highlights the necessity of integrating the elderly population as a critical factor in formula-based intergovernmental fiscal transfers. The demographic transition,…more

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• Working Paper No. 1055
  September 18, 2024

  The Relation Between Budget Deficits and Growth: Complicated but Clear

  L. Randall Wray and Eric Lin
  Abstract

  This paper looks at the relationship between government budget deficits and the growth rate of GDP. While orthodox economic theory offers several reasons to believe that growing deficits might be…more

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• Working Paper No. 1053
  June 07, 2024

  Foreign Deficit and Economic Policy: The Case of Mexico

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The article analyzes Mexico under globalization, particularly on the free mobility of capital. It argues that globalization has detrimentally impacted the productive and external sectors, causing the economy to become…more

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• Working Paper No. 1052
  June 05, 2024

  Exchange-Rate Stability Causes Deterioration of the Productive Sphere and Destabilizes Developing Economies

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  For Matías Vernengo and Esteban Pérez Caldentey (2020), the MMT literature overemphasizes the choice of the exchange rate regime and the relevance of a flexible exchange rate regime, as well…more

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• Strategic Analysis
  June 04, 2024

  U.S. Economic Outlook: Prospects for 2024 and Beyond

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Giuliano T. Yajima, and Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza discuss the rapid recovery of the US economy in the post-pandemic period….more

  Download Strategic Analysis, June 2024 PDF (981.17 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1042
  February 13, 2024

  Saving Social Security

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  For more than 25 years, the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to run out of money in 2033 (give or take a few years), potentially causing benefits to be…more

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