Publications

Reports analyzing US economic performance and policies, based on our proprietary macro model

56 publications found, searching for 'Strategic Analysis '

• Strategic Analysis March 01, 2003

  The US Economy

  Wynne Godley
  Abstract

  Right through the boom years prior to 2001, the American economy faced a strategic predicament in that the main engine of growth (credit-financed private spending) was unsustainable, from which it followed that the whole stance of the government’s fiscal policy would have to be radically changed if the New Economy were not to become stagnant. […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2003 PDF (304.05 KB)
• Strategic Analysis November 01, 2002

  Is Personal Debt Sustainable?

  Claudio H. Dos Santos, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Anwar M. Shaikh, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The long economic expansion was fueled by an unprecedented rise in private expenditure relative to income, financed by a growing flow of net credit to the private. On the surface, it seemed that the growing burden of the household sector’s debt was counterbalanced by a spectacular rise in the relative value of its financial assets, […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, November 2002 PDF (1.50 MB)
• Strategic Analysis April 01, 2002

  Strategic Prospects and Policies for the US Economy

  Wynne Godley
  Abstract

  Notwithstanding the great achievements of the American economy, the growth of aggregate demand during the past several years has been structured in a way that would eventually prove unsustainable. During the main period of economic expansion, the fiscal stance tightened at a much greater pace than in any period during the previous 40 years, and […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2002 PDF (314.33 KB)
• Strategic Analysis October 01, 2001

  The Developing US Recession and Guidelines for Policy

  Wynne Godley, and Alex Izurieta
  Abstract

  The United States should now be prepared for one of the deepest and most intractable recessions of the post–World War II period, with no natural process of recovery in prospect unless a large and complex reorientation of policy occurs both here and in the rest of the world. The grounds for reaching this somber conclusion […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, October 2001 PDF (778.13 KB)
• Strategic Analysis August 01, 2001

  As the Implosion Begins . . . ?

  Wynne Godley, and Alex Izurieta
  Abstract

  Distinguished Scholar Wynne Godley and Research Scholar Alex Izurieta respond to Jan Hatzius’s rebuttal of their July 2001 Strategic Analysis, in which they stated that the American economy was probably already in recession, and that a prolonged period of subnormal growth and rising unemployment was likely unless there were another round of policy changes. Hatzius, […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, August 2001 PDF (76.31 KB)
• Strategic Analysis July 01, 2001

  As the Implosion Begins . . . ?

  Wynne Godley, and Alex Izurieta
  Abstract

  The American economy is probably now in recession, and a prolonged period of subnormal growth and rising unemployment is likely unless there is another round of policy changes. A further relaxation of fiscal policy will probably be needed, but if a satisfactory rate of growth is to be sustained, this will have to be complemented […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, July 2001 (revised August 2001) PDF (952.17 KB)
• Strategic Analysis January 01, 2000

  Interim Report

  Wynne Godley
  Abstract

  If the United States’ balance of trade does not improve, the country could eventually find itself in a “debt trap,” the author says. The aim of this paper, the second in a series offering Godley’s strategic analysis, is to display what seems reasonably likely to happen if world output recovers but otherwise past trends, policies, […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, January 2000 PDF (346.89 KB)
• Strategic Analysis January 01, 1999

  Seven Unsustainable Processes

  Wynne Godley
  Abstract

  The purpose of this Strategic Analysis is not to make short-term predictions about the life expectancy of the current economic expansion in the United States, but to determine if the present stance of fiscal and trade policy is appropriate in the medium term. The expansion has been generated by economic processes that are unsustainable—processes in […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, January 1999 PDF (10.42 MB)