Publications

365 publications found, searching for 'The State of the US and World Economies '

• Working Paper No. 1114
  May 13, 2026

  Macroeconomic Fragility Effects of Financial Innovation: Behavioral and Decentralized Finance and Artificial Intelligence

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  Abstract

  There seems to be a building consensus of global uncertainty and instability. This can be observed not only from surveys, the media, and country reports, but in the recent speeches…more

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• Strategic Analysis
  April 09, 2026

  Greece: Navigating in Turbulent Waters

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Recent narratives on the Greek economy emphasize a strong recovery, fiscal discipline, and improved financial credibility. While official statistics indeed point to positive developments—such as output growth, declining unemployment rates,…more

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2026 PDF (883.60 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1110
  March 30, 2026

  Speculation or Fundamentals? European Natural Gas Price Swings Post 2020

  Emanuele Citera and Veronika Dolar
  Abstract

  We investigate the role of speculation in the European natural gas market over the period 2020–2024, a period marked by extreme price volatility driven by the energy crisis following Russia’s…more

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• Working Paper No. 1107
  February 20, 2026

  Artificial Intelligence: Friend, Foe, Fraud

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  The over-hyped Dot.com revolution bubbled and crashed at the end of the 1990s, leaving a largely unused physical and virtual infrastructure that eventually supported the rise of social media that…more

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• Working Paper No. 1099
  October 22, 2025

  A Stock-Flow Consistent Model of Emulation, Debt, and Personal Income Inequality

  Francesco Ruggeri, Riccardo Pariboni, and Giuliano Toshiro Yajima
  Abstract

  Read the associated blog post here. Divergent trends in income and consumption inequality—with the first increasing substantially more than the latter—are an established, stylized fact for the US economy in…more

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• Strategic Analysis
  October 14, 2025

  The US Economy amid Rising Global Uncertainty

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Contrary to upbeat announcements on the prospects for the US economy from the current administration in Washington, economic conditions are softening for this year. The market for labor is increasing…more

  Download Strategic Analysis, October 2025 PDF (1.37 MB)
• Policy Note No. 2025/6
  August 21, 2025

  The USMCA Is Not Competitive Against China

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The governments of the US and Canada are pressuring Mexico not to import products or accept investments from China, such that Mexico would be forced to import products from them…more

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• Policy Note No. 2025/5
  July 30, 2025

  Working Harder, Paying Less: Wage Suppression in Greece

  Vlassis Missos and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  The state of the labor market in Greece exemplifies the socioeconomic damage caused by austerity.[i] More than 15 years into a recession that has proven both deep and enduring, signs…more

  Download Policy Note 2025/5 PDF (643.45 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1082
  May 12, 2025

  Growth vs. Discipline: Italy’s Fiscal Dilemmas in a Stock-Flow Consistent Model

  Francesco Zezza and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  This paper investigates the implications of the European Union’s revised fiscal governance framework for Italy, a country facing the dual challenge of high public debt and persistent economic stagnation. Using…more

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• One-Pager No. 73
  May 05, 2025

  The Incoming Recession: Are Imports the Real Culprit?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The preliminary estimates for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 show an annualized contraction rate of 0.28 percent, along with an extraordinary increase in imports of 41.3…more

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• Policy Note No. 2025/1
  April 21, 2025

  Trump’s Tariffs: Ending Globalization

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The Trump administration is reintroducing a number of 40-year-old, Reagan-era economic and military policies, but is particularly preoccupied with the imposition of tariffs for all of the country’s imports. Trump,…more

  Download Policy Note 2025/1 PDF (877.05 KB)
• Strategic Analysis
  March 26, 2025

  Greece: Growing on an Unsustainable Path

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Greece has been among the fastest growing economies among the EU member states in the post-COVID-19 period. However, in a previous (February 2024) report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro…more

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2025 PDF (972.75 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1077
  February 11, 2025

  A Critical Examination of the “China Collapse” Narrative

  Yan Liang
  Abstract

  Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy—namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and…more

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• Working Paper No. 1075
  January 23, 2025

  The High Cost of the Strong Peso and Its Temporary Nature: The Case of Mexico

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The article analyzes why exchange rate stability has been prioritized in Mexico and why the national currency has appreciated; which policies and factors have made this possible, the costs and…more

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• Working Paper No. 1063
  December 03, 2024

  Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an SFC Model of the Italian Economy

  Francesco Zezza
  Abstract

  Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–9, there has been a shift in mainstream economic policy modeling toward “realism,” with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models partly diverging from the…more

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• Policy Note No. 2024/3
  November 07, 2024

  Trump Wins While Americans Vote for Progressive Policies

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva
  Abstract

  On November 5, 2024, American voters sent Donald Trump back to the White House. In 2020, he lost his bid for reelection to Joe Biden, after winning in 2016 against…more

  Download Policy Note 2024/3 PDF (182.86 KB)
• Strategic Analysis
  November 05, 2024

  Economic Challenges of the New U.S. Administration

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  On the eve of the 2024 US presidential election, the authors share their latest macroeconomic projections using the Levy Institute’s tailored stock-flow consistent model and evaluate two alternative policy scenarios, depending upon the next occupant of the White House: (1) a significant increase in import tariffs and decrease in the marginal tax rate, and (2) a substantial increase in government expenditure paired with an increase in the marginal tax rate.

  Download Strategic Analysis November 2024 PDF (673.85 KB)
• Policy Note No. 2024/2
  November 04, 2024

  Inflation

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  Edward Lane surveys some of the main potential contributors to the recent period of elevated inflation rates in the US economy—focusing on supply disruptions, inflation-adjusted consumer spending, and consumer spending…more

  Download Policy Note 2024/2 PDF (562.43 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1053
  June 07, 2024

  Foreign Deficit and Economic Policy: The Case of Mexico

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The article analyzes Mexico under globalization, particularly on the free mobility of capital. It argues that globalization has detrimentally impacted the productive and external sectors, causing the economy to become…more

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• Strategic Analysis
  June 04, 2024

  U.S. Economic Outlook: Prospects for 2024 and Beyond

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Giuliano T. Yajima, and Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza discuss the rapid recovery of the US economy in the post-pandemic period….more

  Download Strategic Analysis, June 2024 PDF (981.17 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1049
  May 07, 2024

  Deindustrialization from the Center Perspective: US Trade and Manufacturing in the Last Two Decades

  Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and George Soklis
  Abstract

  We argue that the US trade and industry sector has experienced several unsustainable sectoral processes, including (i) a fall in the trade balance in machinery and equipment and high-tech (HT)…more

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• Working Paper No. 1047
  April 08, 2024

  “Just Transition” in India and Fiscal Stance: Analyzing the Tax Buoyancy of the Extractive Sector

  Lekha S. Chakraborty and Emmanuel Thomas
  Abstract

  Against the backdrop of fiscal transition concomitant to energy transition policies with climate change commitments, revenue from the extractive sector needs a recalibration in the subnational fiscal space. Extractive tax…more

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• Strategic Analysis
  February 15, 2024

  Greece: Time to Reduce the Dependency on Imports

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano T. Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza investigate the determinants of the recent performance of the Greek economy. Despite geopolitical instability from the…more

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• Working Paper No. 1042
  February 13, 2024

  Saving Social Security

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  For more than 25 years, the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to run out of money in 2033 (give or take a few years), potentially causing benefits to be…more

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