Publications

1703 publications found

• Strategic Analysis
  November 05, 2024

  Economic Challenges of the New U.S. Administration

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  On the eve of the 2024 US presidential election, the authors share their latest macroeconomic projections using the Levy Institute’s tailored stock-flow consistent model and evaluate two alternative policy scenarios, depending upon the next occupant of the White House: (1) a significant increase in import tariffs and decrease in the marginal tax rate, and (2) a substantial increase in government expenditure paired with an increase in the marginal tax rate.

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• Policy Note
  November 04, 2024

  Inflation

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  Edward Lane surveys some of the main potential contributors to the recent period of elevated inflation rates in the US economy—focusing on supply disruptions, inflation-adjusted consumer spending, and consumer spending…more

  Download Policy Note 2024/2 PDF (562.43 KB)
• Policy Note No. 1
  October 11, 2024

  The Boy Who Cried Wolf About Government Debt

  Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  In a New York Times editorial, David Leonhardt recounts Aesop’s apocryphal story about the boy and the wolf, warning that while deficit hawks have so far been wrong, the growing government debt will eventually bite. He reports the economic plans of both presidential candidates would add to the debt that will soon exceed GDP and grow to 130 percent of annual output under a President Harris, or 140 percent with a Trump presidency.

  The story of the boy and the wolf was a fable, although it was within the realm of possibility. The fable of the debt wolf is not. While there are real world wolves—Leonhardt mentions climate catastrophe and autocratic leaders, and the authors would add rising inequality and the concentration of economic and political power in the hands of billionaires—authors Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray assert, federal debt is not one of them.

  Download Policy Note 2024/1 PDF (368.08 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1057
  October 09, 2024

  Rise and Fall of Mexican Super Peso: Heterodox Perspective versus Orthodoxy

  Laura Lisset Montiel-Orozco
  Abstract

  This working paper contrasts the neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian theories of monetary policy for an open economy, highlighting the irrelevance of the orthodox theory and the explanatory capacity of heterodoxy for…more

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• Working Paper No. 1056
  October 07, 2024

  Federal Tax Transfers and Demographic Transition: Balancing Equity and Efficiency

  Lekha S. Chakraborty and Yadawendra Singh
  Abstract

  Against the backdrop of demographic transition in India, the study highlights the necessity of integrating the elderly population as a critical factor in formula-based intergovernmental fiscal transfers. The demographic transition,…more

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• Working Paper No. 1055
  September 18, 2024

  The Relation Between Budget Deficits and Growth: Complicated but Clear

  L. Randall Wray and Eric Lin
  Abstract

  This paper looks at the relationship between government budget deficits and the growth rate of GDP. While orthodox economic theory offers several reasons to believe that growing deficits might be…more

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• Working Paper No. 1054
  June 28, 2024

  Gender-Responsive Public Financial Management: The Indian Chronology of Gender Budgeting

  Lekha S. Chakraborty
  Abstract

  Gender budgeting is a public financial management (PFM) tool, used to ensure accountability mechanisms. The analysis of “process” indicators of gender-responsive PFM (GRPFM) reveals that India has been successful in…more

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• Working Paper No. 1053
  June 07, 2024

  Foreign Deficit and Economic Policy: The Case of Mexico

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The article analyzes Mexico under globalization, particularly on the free mobility of capital. It argues that globalization has detrimentally impacted the productive and external sectors, causing the economy to become…more

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• Working Paper No. 1052
  June 05, 2024

  Exchange-Rate Stability Causes Deterioration of the Productive Sphere and Destabilizes Developing Economies

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  For Matías Vernengo and Esteban Pérez Caldentey (2020), the MMT literature overemphasizes the choice of the exchange rate regime and the relevance of a flexible exchange rate regime, as well…more

  Download Working Paper No. 1052 PDF (346.76 KB)
• Strategic Analysis
  June 04, 2024

  U.S. Economic Outlook: Prospects for 2024 and Beyond

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Giuliano T. Yajima, and Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza discuss the rapid recovery of the US economy in the post-pandemic period….more

  Download Strategic Analysis, June 2024 PDF (981.17 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1051
  May 10, 2024

  Euro Interest Rate Swap Yields: Some ARDL Models

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper examines the dynamics of euro-denominated (EUR) long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant effect on EUR swap…more

  Download Working Paper No. 1051 PDF (551.75 KB)
• One-Pager No. 72
  May 10, 2024

  If Government Can Print Money, Why Does It Borrow?

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  Recently, the neglected question of why the US government borrows, given that it can print money, has arisen in the context of discussions surrounding a new documentary, Finding the Money. As L. Randall Wray observes in this one-pager, Modern Money Theory has been providing answers to this question for some time; and, he argues, it is a topic that mainstream economists are ill-equipped to address, since very few concern themselves with the monetary operations that underlie the question of why a currency-issuing government issues debt.

  Download One-Pager No. 72 PDF (123.67 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1050
  May 07, 2024

  Macroeconomic Effects of a Government Overdraft on Its Central Bank Account

  Tarron Khemraj
  Abstract

  The Guyana government, from 2015 to 2021, accumulated a large overdraft on its central bank account. It owed this overdraft to a binding debt ceiling limit and fractious political environment…more

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• Working Paper No. 1049
  May 07, 2024

  Deindustrialization from the Center Perspective: US Trade and Manufacturing in the Last Two Decades

  Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and George Soklis
  Abstract

  We argue that the US trade and industry sector has experienced several unsustainable sectoral processes, including (i) a fall in the trade balance in machinery and equipment and high-tech (HT)…more

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• Working Paper No. 1048
  April 19, 2024

  An Empirical Analysis of Swedish Government Bond Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Mahima Yadav
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Swedish government bond (SGB) yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term SGB yields, after controlling for…more

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• Working Paper No. 1047
  April 08, 2024

  “Just Transition” in India and Fiscal Stance: Analyzing the Tax Buoyancy of the Extractive Sector

  Lekha S. Chakraborty and Emmanuel Thomas
  Abstract

  Against the backdrop of fiscal transition concomitant to energy transition policies with climate change commitments, revenue from the extractive sector needs a recalibration in the subnational fiscal space. Extractive tax…more

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• Research Project Report
  March 19, 2024

  Integrating Nonmarket Consumption into the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey

  Ajit Zacharias, Fernando Rios-Avila, Nancy Folbre, and Thomas Masterson
  Abstract

  In spring 2021, under the direction and encouragement of Commissioner William Beach, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) kicked off a major initiative—to produce a measure of consumption to…more

• Policy Note
  March 14, 2024

  European Job Guarantee

  Rania Antonopoulos
  Abstract

  Despite the gradual economic recovery and positive policy responses during the COVID-19 pandemic, the problem of long-term unemployment continues to plague millions in Europe. To effectively address this and other…more

  Download Policy Note 2024/4 PDF (293.42 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1046
  March 07, 2024

  The Aggregate Production Function and Solow’s “Three Denials”

  Jesus Felipe and John McCombie
  Abstract

  This paper offers a retrospective view of the key pillar of Solow’s neoclassical growth model, namely the aggregate production function. We review how this tool came to life and how…more

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• Working Paper No. 1045
  March 07, 2024

  Social Security and Gender Inequality

  Liudmila Malyshava and B. Oak McCoy
  Abstract

  This inquiry examines the role of federal policy in gender inequality using the principles of institutional adjustment (Foster 1981; Bush 1987) in the context of the Veblenian dichotomy of habit…more

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• Working Paper No. 1044
  February 23, 2024

  Empirical Models of Chinese Government Bond Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Shahida Pervin
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of long-term Chinese government bond (CGB) yields based on key macroeconomic and financial variables. It deploys autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models to examine whether…more

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• Strategic Analysis
  February 15, 2024

  Greece: Time to Reduce the Dependency on Imports

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano T. Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza investigate the determinants of the recent performance of the Greek economy. Despite geopolitical instability from the…more

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• Working Paper No. 1043
  February 14, 2024

  Interest Rate Dynamics: An Examination of Mainstream and Keynesian Empirical Studies

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper critically reviews both mainstream and Keynesian empirical studies of interest rate dynamics. It assesses the key findings of a selected number of these studies, surveying the debates between…more

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• Working Paper No. 1042
  February 13, 2024

  Saving Social Security

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  For more than 25 years, the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to run out of money in 2033 (give or take a few years), potentially causing benefits to be…more

  Download Working Paper No. 1042 PDF (2.11 MB)