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Strategic AnalysisOctober 01, 2001
The Developing US Recession and Guidelines for Policy
AbstractThe United States should now be prepared for one of the deepest and most intractable recessions of the post–World War II period, with no natural process of recovery in prospect…more
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Working Paper No. 340October 01, 2001
Incentives in HMOs
AbstractWe studied the effect of physician incentives in an HMO network. Physician incentives are controversial because they may induce doctors to make treatment decisions that differ from those they would…more
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Working Paper No. 339October 01, 2001
Uncertainty, Conventional Behavior, and Economic Sociology
AbstractThis paper addresses the problem of the conceptualization of social structure and its relationship to human agency in economic sociology. The background is provided by John Maynard Keynes’s observations on…more
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Policy Note No. 9September 01, 2001
Hard Times, Easy Money?
AbstractThe tools of countercyclical monetary policy have been brought fully to bear on a potentially severe recession. This note argues, however, that such a policy is less effective in times…more
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Working Paper No. 338September 01, 2001
The Monetary Policies of the European Central Bank and the Euro’s (Mal)performance
AbstractThe stability-oriented macroeconomic framework established in the Maastricht and Amsterdam Treaties on European Union (TEU), especially the unparalleled status of independence and peculiar mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB),…more
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Working Paper No. 336August 01, 2001
The Role of Institutions and Policies in Creating High European Unemployment
AbstractThe conventional wisdom is that high European unemployment is the result of job markets that are rigid and inflexible. This paper presents new empirical evidence that challenges this received wisdom….more
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Working Paper No. 335August 01, 2001
Young Mexican Americans, Blacks, and Whites in Recent Years
AbstractThis paper stresses that the key to concerns about the progress of second-generation Americans is the fate of the Mexican second generation. It compares several indicators of the advances of…more
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Policy Note No. 8August 01, 2001
The War Economy
AbstractThere is no chance that events will right themselves in a few weeks, or that we will be saved by such underlying factors as technology and productivity growth or by…more
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Public Policy Brief No. 65August 01, 2001
Easy Money through the Back Door
AbstractThis brief assesses the experiences of Europe’s policy regime in the two years since the introduction of the euro in 1999, particularly the performance of the European Central Bank (ECB),…more
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Strategic AnalysisAugust 01, 2001
As the Implosion Begins . . . ?
AbstractDistinguished Scholar Wynne Godley and Research Scholar Alex Izurieta respond to Jan Hatzius’s rebuttal of their July 2001 Strategic Analysis, in which they stated that the American economy was probably…more
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Working Paper No. 337August 01, 2001
Can Countries under a Common Currency Conduct Their Own Fiscal Policies?
AbstractThe debate about balance of payment problems is generally linked with adjustments in the fiscal sector, especially since the views of Bretton Woods institutions became predominant. For the majority of…more
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Working Paper No. 334July 01, 2001
Reflections on the Current Fashion for Central Bank Independence
AbstractThis paper challenges the time-inconsistency case for central bank independence. It argues that the time-inconsistency literature not only seriously confuses the substance of the rules versus discretion debate, but also…more
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Strategic AnalysisJuly 01, 2001
As the Implosion Begins . . . ?
AbstractThe American economy is probably now in recession, and a prolonged period of subnormal growth and rising unemployment is likely unless there is another round of policy changes. A further…more
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Policy Note No. 7July 01, 2001
The New Old Economy
AbstractConsensus opinion sees the United States’ economy growing by around 3 percent per year over the next few years, a high enough rate to keep unemployment low and outpace Europe….more
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Working Paper No. 333June 01, 2001
Toward a Population History of the Second Generation
AbstractPast-present comparisons of second-generation progress are often plagued by vague references to the baseline, the past. This essay seeks to contribute some specificity to the understanding of second generations past…more
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Working Paper No. 332June 01, 2001
Contradictions Coming Home to Roost?
AbstractIt is widely believed that the current economic slowdown will be mild and temporary in nature, the result of a momentary wobble in the stock market. This paper argues that…more
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Public Policy Brief No. 64June 01, 2001
Campaign Contributions, Policy Decisions, and Election Outcomes
AbstractProposals for campaign finance reform are essentially based on the belief that political influence can be bought with financial donations to a candidate’s campaign. But do contributions really influence the…more
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Policy Note No. 6June 01, 2001
Killing Social Security Softly with Faux Kindness
AbstractThe President’s commission claims that the Social Security program is “unsustainable” and requires a complete “overhaul.” It also claims that the program is a bad deal for women and minorities….more
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Policy Note No. 5May 01, 2001
The Backward Art of Tax Cutting
AbstractThis policy note examines the case for large tax cuts, focusing on the issues surrounding the purpose and overall size of the needed cut. Although Congress has passed a significant…more
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Working Paper No. 328May 01, 2001
On the “Burden” of German Unification
AbstractThis paper investigates the causes of western Germany’s remarkably poor performance since 1992. The paper challenges the view that the poor record of the nineties, particularly the marked deterioration in…more
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Working Paper No. 331May 01, 2001
Skills, Computerization, and Earnings in the Postwar US Economy
AbstractUsing both time-series and pooled cross-section, time-series data for 44 industries in the United States over the period 1947–97, the authors find no evidence to support the idea that the…more
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Working Paper No. 330May 01, 2001
Is Wealth Becoming More Polarized in the United States?
AbstractRecent work has documented a rising degree of wealth inequality in the United States between 1983 and 1998. In this paper we look at another dimension of the distribution: polarization….more
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Working Paper No. 329May 01, 2001
Reporting of Two or More Races in the 1999 American Community Survey
AbstractThis study presents data on race, collected at selected sites throughout the country for the 1999 American Community Survey (ACS). In particular, the distribution of the population by race and…more
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Policy Note No. 4April 01, 2001
Put Your Chips on 35
AbstractAccording to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, we live in a time “profoundly different from the typical postwar business cycle.” Our experiences have “defied conventional wisdom” and mark ”veritable shifts…more
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