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BlogThe meaning of the federal government’s AA+
Throughout the weekend, television news coverage dwelled on Friday’s downgrade of U.S. debt securities by Standard and Poor’s, one of the three main ratings agencies that assess the creditworthiness of the federal government. The meaning of S & P’s action remains somewhat uncertain, and we doubt that, as important as the story was, the downgrade [...] -
Blog
“We get on very well in private life, but what rubbish his theory is” *
The BBC have broadcast a recent debate, dubbed “Keynes vs Hayek,” featuring Keynes’ biographer Lord Skidelsky. For anyone interested in an entry-level discussion of these competing policy approaches, and plenty of binge-drinking/hangover metaphors, it’s worth a listen. * (Keynes, in reference to Hayek.) -
One-Pager No. 11Investing in Social Care Delivery
There is little mystery to explaining our current high levels of unemployment. The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently revised its figures on GDP growth, and revealed that not only was the recession worse than we realized, but recent growth rates have been overstated as well. The hole, in other words, was deeper than we thought, […] -
Blog
Self-Flagellation, Revisited
Following up on a previous item, Macroeconomic Advisers have updated their analysis in response to the most recent debt ceiling deal. The results: no good news, and some serious uncertainty in the probable effects on growth (though not the sort of “uncertainty” the conventional wisdom is persistently telling us we should care about). In 2012, [...] -
Blog
An update on the Fed and the debt-limit impasse
A deal was reached over the weekend by congressional leaders and the President to resolve the debt-ceiling impasse. By that point, it was clear that the possible way out described by John Carney in a blog post to which we linked on Thursday would not be feasible. Nonetheless, the Fed’s ability to supply cash as [...] -
Blog
Gross Distraction
Bill Gross has weighed in on the debate about excessive sovereign debt, invoking a study produced by Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart that purports to show a negative relation between debt and economic growth. The “Maginot line” is a debt ratio of 90%, beyond which economic growth slows by 1%. Yet Mr. Gross does not [...] -
Blog
GDP Revisions and Our Looming Policy Masochism
The economy grew at an unflattering 1.3% annual rate in the second quarter, while first quarter GDP growth has been revised downwards to a wretched 0.4%. Against the backdrop of these abysmal numbers, the US government appears poised to do its best to make matters worse. Even if the debt limit negotiations generate an agreement, [...] -
Blog
A longer-term Keynesian approach to macro policy
Many influential mainstream Keynesian economists continue to support high deficits until the nation’s yawning jobs gap is closed. As Laura D’Andrea Tyson observes in a thorough and helpful blog entry posted this morning, this is not a fine-tuning problem requiring a careful weighing of priorities, given the current state of the job market: Like many [...] -
Blog
Will there be a Fed shutdown?
In a recent blog piece at the CNBC website, John Carney offers this interpretation of the federal debt ceiling (see also Felix Salmon’s more recent comment): “The debt ceiling applies to the face amount of obligations issued under Chapter 31 of Title 31 of the U.S. Code—basically, Treasury notes and bills and the other standard [...] -
Blog
Private-sector debt ratios still high by historical standards
With all the recent coverage of the federal government’s debt-limit impasse, it has been some time since the private sector’s financial picture has received much attention in the popular press. Nonetheless, there seems to be little news, as the most recent flow-of-funds data release from the Fed depicts a continuation of trends that have held [...] -
Working Paper No. 680The Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being: Estimates for Canada, 1999 and 2005
This report presents estimates of the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being (LIMEW) for a representative sample of Canadian households in 1999 and 2005. The results indicate that there was only modest growth in the average Canadian household’s total command over economic resources in the six years between 1999 and 2005. Although inequality in economic […] -
Working Paper No. 679
The Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being, France, 1989 and 2000
We construct estimates of the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being for France for the years 1989 and 2000. We also estimate the standard measure of disposable cash income (DI) from the same data sources. We analyze overall trends in the level and distribution of household well-being using both measures for France as a whole […]