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  Working Paper No. 675

  The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth

  This paper traces the rise of export-led growth as a development paradigm and argues that it is exhausted owing to changed conditions in emerging market (EM) and developed economies. The global economy needs a recalibration that facilitates a new paradigm of domestic demand-led growth. Globalization has so diversified global economic activity that no country or […]
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  Working Paper No. 674

  Institutional Prerequisites of Financial Fragility within Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis

  The relevancy of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) in the current (and still unfolding) crisis has been clearly acknowledged by both economists and regulators. While most papers focus on discussing to what extent the FIH or Minsky’s Big Bank/Big Government interpretation is appropriate to explain and sort out the crisis, some authors have also emphasized […]
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  Blog

  Should the Dollar Remain Independent of Gold?

  (Click figure to enlarge it.) Some “gold bugs” advocate a return to the gold standard, which the United States officially abandoned in the early 1970s.  The annual data in the chart above show that the price of gold has risen sharply in both euros and yen since 1999. Meanwhile, the dollar itself has fallen against [...]
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  One-Pager No. 10

  Will the Recovery Continue?

  With quantitative easing winding down and the latest payroll tax-cut measures set to expire at the end of this year, pressing questions loom about the current state of the US economic recovery and its ability to sustain itself in the absence of support from monetary and fiscal policy.
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  Working Paper No. 673

  Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy

  We present strong empirical evidence favoring the role of effective demand in the US economy, in the spirit of Keynes and Kalecki. Our inference comes from a statistically well-specified VAR model constructed on a quarterly basis from 1980 to 2008. US output is our variable of interest, and it depends (in our specification) on (1) […]
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  Audio

  The Wynne Godley Memorial Conference

  Wynne Godley’s work focused on the strategic prospects for the US, UK, and world economies, and the use of accounting macroeconomic models to reveal structural imbalances. This conference will provide scholars profoundly influenced by his work the opportunity to celebrate his contributions to the field of economics. Topics will include fiscal policy and stock-flow consistent […]
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  Working Paper No. 672

  Income Distribution in a Monetary Economy

  The paper provides a novel theory of income distribution and achieves an integration of monetary and value theories along Ricardian lines, extended to a monetary production economy as understood by Keynes. In a monetary economy, capital is a fund that must be maintained. This idea is captured in the circuit of capital as first defined […]
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  Diagnosing New Inflation Symptoms

  May 26, 2011. Copyright © 2011 New Geography It’s been more than three years since the Great Recession began, and it’s no longer debatable that the federal spending in its wake did not provoke inflation. Years of forecasts by fiscal conservatives about the result of government expenditures have proved to be wrong. After three fiscal […]
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  Working Paper No. 671

  Public Job-creation Programs: The Economic Benefits of Investing in Social Care

  This paper demonstrates the strong impacts that public job creation in social care provisioning has on employment creation. Furthermore, it shows that mobilizing underutilized domestic labor resources and targeting them to bridge gaps in community-based services yield strong pro-poor income growth patterns that extend throughout the economy. Social care provision also contributes to promoting gender […]
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  Working Paper No. 670

  The Product Space

  In this paper we look at the economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in the context of structural transformation. We use Hidalgo et al.’s (2007) concept of product space to show the evolution of the region’s productive structure, and discuss the opportunities for growth and diversification. The majority of SSA countries are trapped in the export of unsophisticated, […]
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  One-Pager No. 9

  Did Problems with SSDI Cause the Output-Jobs Disconnect?

  The slow recovery of the job market after the recessions of 2001 and 2007–09 has fostered concerns that the link between output growth and job creation has been severed. Between 2000 and 2010, the employment rate for males plunged from 71.9 to 63.7 percent—a decline that can be accounted for almost entirely by a fall […]
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  Working Paper No. 669

  Race, Power, and the Subprime/Foreclosure Crisis

  Economists’ principal explanations of the subprime crisis differ from those developed by noneconomists in that the latter see it as rooted in the US legacy of racial/ethnic inequality, and especially in racial residential segregation, whereas the former ignore race. This paper traces this disjuncture to two sources. What is missing in the social science view […]