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BlogThe Only Graph Needed to Explain the New Year’s Dive of 2016: Larry Summers Sort-Of Gets It, the Fed Doesn’t Seem to Get It, and the Media Seems Hardly Aware of It
by Daniel Alpert A practically unnoticed phenomenon underpins the negative U.S. economic data trends we saw in Q4 2015 and the enormous increase in market volatility in the first week of 2016: the United States’ global competitors are—once again—using vast pools of low-wage, underutilized labor, a huge excess of domestic production capacity, and/or the ever-stronger [...] -
Summary No. 1Summary Winter 2016
The Winter 2016 Summary opens with a policy brief discussing the implications for euro-area member-states’ fiscal rules should the European Central Bank (ECB) advance the project of a single financial market through the creation of debt certificates. A policy note follows with proposals to ensure that the most recent round of recapitalizations of Greek banks […] -
Strategic Analysis
How Long Before Growth and Employment Are Restored in Greece?
The Greek economy has not succeeded in restoring growth, nor has it managed to restore a climate of reduced uncertainty, which is crucial for stabilizing the business climate and promoting investment. On the contrary, the new round of austerity measures that has been agreed upon implies another year of recession in 2016. After reviewing some […] -
Blog
Registration Now Open for 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference
The 2016 Minsky Conference will address whether what appears to be a global economic slowdown will jeopardize the implementation and efficiency of Dodd-Frank regulatory reforms, the transition of monetary policy away from zero interest rates, and the “new” normal of fiscal policy, as well as the use of fiscal policies aimed at achieving sustainable growth [...] -
Policy Notes No. 8The US Census Asks About Race and Ethnicity: 1980–2020
This policy note examines the formulation and reformulation of questions deployed by the US Census Bureau to gather information on racial and ethnic origin in recent decades. The likely outcome for the 2020 Census is that two older questions on race and Hispanic origin will be combined into a single question on ethno-racial origin. The […] -
Working Paper No. 857Ethno-Racial Origin in US Federal Statistics: 1980–2020
This paper describes the transformations in federal classification of ethno-racial information since the civil rights era of the 1960s. These changes were introduced in the censuses of 1980 and 2000, and we anticipate another major change in the 2020 Census. The most important changes in 1980 introduced the Hispanic Origin and Ancestry questions and the […] -
Blog
Applying the Brakes: Four Long and Winding Roads to “Normalcy” for the Fed
by Daniel Alpert It is highly likely that this week will see the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee elect to increase the Fed Funds policy rate of interest for the first time since June of 2006, and after slashing the rate to the lowest level in history—approaching the so-called zero lower bound. But the return [...] -
The Enduring Relevance of “Manias, Panics, and Crashes”
EconoMonitor, December 14, 2015. All Rights Reserved. The seventh edition of Manias, Panics, and Crashes has recently been published by Palgrave Macmillan. Charles Kindleberger of MIT wrote the first edition, which appeared in 1978, and followed it with three more editions. Robert Aliber of the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago took over the […] -
MME, December 13, 2015
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Συμπληρωματικό νόμισμα και οικονομική σταθερότητα
Kathimerini, 13 Δεκέμβριος 2015. Με επιφύλαξη παντός δικαιώματος. Ενα παράλληλο οικονομικό σύστημα είναι χρήσιμο, ιδίως για μία χώρα όπως η Ελλάδα, η οποία προσπαθεί να επανέλθει στον δρόμο της οικονομικής ανάκαμψης. Η ιδέα της εφαρμογής παράλληλου (συμπληρωματικού) οικονομικού συστήματος, όμως, απέκτησε κακή φήμη στη χώρα μας για δύο λόγους: την αρνητική προβολή που εξασφάλισε η […] -
One-Pager No. 51Completing the Single Financial Market and New Fiscal Rules for the Euro Area
Until market participants across the euro area face a single risk-free yield curve rather than a diverse collection of quasi-risk-free sovereign rates, financial market integration will not be complete. Unfortunately, the institution that would normally provide the requisite benchmark asset—a federal treasury issuing risk-free debt—does not exist in the euro area, and there are daunting […] -
Working Paper No. 856
Redistribution in the Age of Austerity
We examine the relationship between changes in a country’s public sector fiscal position and inequality at the top and bottom of the income distribution during the age of austerity (2006–13). We use a parametric Lorenz curve model and Gini-like indices of inequality as our measures to assess distributional changes. Based on the EU’s Statistics on […]