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Working Paper No. 246August 01, 1998
Derivatives and Global Capital Flows
AbstractFour factors in the current financial crisis in Asia have surprised observers. First, although capital flows in Asia appeared stable, the crisis was precipitated by the reversal of the very…more
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Working Paper No. 249August 01, 1998
The American Wage Structure, 1920–1947
AbstractThis paper uses industrial wage data and a systematic if unconventional selection of methods to examine changes in the inter-industry structure of wages between 1920 and 1947. We first sort…more
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Working Paper No. 248August 01, 1998
Can Expenditure Cuts Eliminate a Budget Deficit?
AbstractAustralian governments since the late 1970s have attempted to eliminate the fiscal deficit through reductions in expenditure. These efforts have failed. With each successive business cycle the federal government’s budget…more
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Working Paper No. 247August 01, 1998
“Inability to Be Self-Reliant” As an Indicator of US Poverty
AbstractThe official poverty measure is based on the premise that all families should have sufficient income from either their own efforts or government support to boost them above a family-size-specific…more
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Public Policy Brief No. 41July 03, 1998
Side Effects of Progress
AbstractWhy does a dynamic growing economy have a persistent long-term unemployment problem? Research Associates Baumol and Wolff have isolated one cause. Although technological change, the engine of growth and economic…more
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Working Paper No. 245July 01, 1998
Reciprocity and the Guaranteed Income
AbstractThis paper argues that a guaranteed income is not only consistent with the principle of reciprocity but is required for reciprocity. This conclusion follows from a three-part argument. First, if…more
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Working Paper No. 244July 01, 1998
Can Taxes and Bonds Finance Government Spending?
AbstractThis paper investigates the commonly held belief that government spending is normally financed through a combination of taxes and bond sales. The argument is a technical one and requires a…more
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Working Paper No. 243July 01, 1998
State Type and Congressional Voting on the Minimum Wage
AbstractHow members of Congress vote on increases in the minimum wage is a function of several factors, most notably party affiliation and constituent interest. But also among those factors is…more
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Working Paper No. 242July 01, 1998
Money and Credit in a Keynesian Model of Income Determination
AbstractThis paper formally integrates the theory of money and credit derived ultimately from Wicksell into the Keynesian theory of income determination, with assets allocated according to Tobinesque principles. The model…more
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Policy Notes No. 7July 01, 1998
Goldilocks and the Three Bears
AbstractUnlike the Papa, Mama, and Baby Bears faced by the storybook Goldilocks, our Goldilocks faced three ferocious grizzlies: a cascading, global financial crisis, global deflation and excess capacity (or insufficient…more
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Working Paper No. 241July 01, 1998
Optimal Financing by Money and Taxes of Productive and Unproductive Government Spending
AbstractThis paper contains an investigation of the effects of different means of financing government spending on economic growth, inflation, and welfare. In this setting, two different types of government spending…more
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Working Paper No. 240July 01, 1998
The Place of Cultural Explanations and Historical Specificity in Discussions of Modes of Incorporation and Segmented Assimilation
AbstractIn this new working paper, Senior Scholar Joel Perlmann discusses cultural, structural, and contextual explanations of segmented assimilation among the children of immigrants. In it he addresses a number of…more
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Working Paper No. 239July 01, 1998
An Ethical Framework for Cost-Effective Medicine
AbstractHMO medicine has been effective in controlling once-runaway health care costs. But it sets up inevitable conflict between patient care and the financial well-being of the health plan and of…more
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Working Paper No. 238June 01, 1998
The Macroeconomics of Industrial Strategy
AbstractThis paper explores some of the links between macroeconomic policy and industrial strategy. The perspective of the present paper is to emphasize the role of the output and investment activities…more
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Policy Notes No. 6June 01, 1998
What to Do with the Surplus
AbstractNeither Congress nor the president is on the right track. Rather than protecting the surplus, we should be increasing spending and cutting taxes to contain the looming world recession.
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Public Policy Brief No. 40May 02, 1998
Overcoming America’s Infrastructure Deficit
AbstractCondemned bridges, dilapidated school buildings, contaminated water supplies, and other infrastructure shortcomings threaten American growth, productivity, and prosperity. The authors of this brief propose a plan for financing infrastructure projects…more
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Working Paper No. 237May 01, 1998
Speed of Technical Progress and Length of the Average Interjob Period
AbstractThe mean duration of unemployment approximately doubled in the United States between the early 1950s and the mid-1990s, with most of the increase occurring since the early 1970s. Using a…more
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Working Paper No. 236May 01, 1998
An Important Inconsistency at the Heart of the Standard Macroeconomic Model
AbstractThe standard neoclassical model is the foundation of most mainstream macroeconomics. Its basic structure dominates the analyis of macroeconomic phenomena, the teaching of the subject, and even the formation of…more
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Working Paper No. 235May 01, 1998
East Asia Is Not Mexico
AbstractWhat was different about the collapse of the Asian emerging markets in 1997? The free fall of the Mexican peso and the collapse of the Mexican Bolsa produced a “Tequila…more
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Public Policy Brief No. 39May 01, 1998
The Unmeasured Labor Force
AbstractIs the current labor market as tight as official statistics would seem to indicate? If incumbent workers increase their hours of work, it is irrelevant to the unemployment rate, but…more
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Policy Notes No. 5May 01, 1998
The Fed Should Lower Interest Rates More
AbstractSome analysts have argued against monetary ease, fearing that it might fuel a speculative boom. Alas, given the recent substantial “market correction,” this objection may safely be put away.
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Working Paper No. 234April 01, 1998
Yes, “It” Did Happen Again
AbstractThe title of Visiting Senior Scholar Jan Kregel’s working paper is a reference to Hyman P. Minsky’s book Can “It” Happen Again? The Minskian “it” is the debt deflation scenario…more
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Working Paper No. 233April 01, 1998
Public Capital and Economic Growth
AbstractEmpirical research largely suggests that there is a positive role for public capital and a negative role for taxation and debt, and the effectiveness of public capital depends critically on…more
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Working Paper No. 232April 01, 1998
The Asian Disease
AbstractThe Asian crisis is a textbook case of the “financial instability hypothesis” first expressed in 1966 by the late Hyman P. Minsky. Minsky’s “hypothesis” was proposed to explain instability in…more
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