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  Working Paper No. 1042

  Saving Social Security

  For more than 25 years, the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to run out of money in 2033 (give or take a few years), potentially causing benefits to be severely reduced in the absence of corrective legislative action. Today (February 2024), projections are made by the Social Security Administration that indicate that future benefits […]
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  The Disconnect Between Biden’s Great Economic Numbers and How Voters Feel about the Economy

  Listen to Levy Scholar Pavlina Tcherneva on Back Ground Briefing with Ian Masters. Available on SoundCloud now.
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  Read Senior Scholar James K. Galbraith’s article, “Entropy, the Theory of Value and the Future of Humanity” featured by the Economic Democracy Initiative.

  In a keynote address to a conference on “Geopolitical Changes” at Kozminski University, Warsaw, on January 29, 2024, Professor James Galbraith called for economics to break with equilibrium dogma and re-found itself on the life principles that govern physics, biology and every existing mechanical and social system.
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  Working Paper No. 1040

  COP28 and Environmental Federalism: Empirical Evidence from an Emerging Economy, India

  Against the backdrop of COP28, this paper investigates the impact of intergovernmental fiscal transfers (IGFT) on climate change commitments in India. Within the analytical framework of environmental federalism, we tested the evidence for the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) using a panel model covering 27 Indian states from 2003 to 2020. The results suggest a positive […]
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  Working Paper No. 1039

  Can the Philippines attain 6.5–8 Percent Growth During 2023–28?

  We expand the standard balance-of-payments–constrained (BOPC) growth rate model in three directions. First, we take into account the separate contributions of exports in goods, exports in services, overseas remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Second, we use state-space estimation techniques to obtain time-varying parameters of the relevant coefficients. Third, we test for the endogeneity […]
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  Working Paper No. 1041

  Amazon Green Recovery and Labor Market in Brazil

  Announced in June 2021, the never-implemented Green Recovery Plan for the Brazilian Legal Amazon Region (GRP) would be a green transition initiative to be carried out by the state governments of the region. The GRP represented the first large-scale proposal aiming at the transition to a low-carbon economy in Brazil and offered a preliminary framework […]
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  Working Paper No. 1038

  Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren—90 Years Later

  This paper revisits Keynes’s (1930) essay titled “The economic possibilities for our grandchildren.” We discuss the three broader trends identified by Keynes that he expected would come to characterize the socio-economic evolution of advanced countries under individualistic capitalism: first, continued technological progress and capital accumulation as the main drivers of exponential growth in economic possibilities; […]
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  Working Paper No. 1037

  Markups, Profit Shares, and Cost-Push-Profit-Led Inflation

  The post-pandemic surge in inflation was accompanied by a surge in the corporate share of profits. As a result, several economists and policy makers have given to it names such as “profit-led inflation” or “sellers’ inflation.” The present paper discusses the extent to which profit-led inflation, as an explanation for the recent surge in inflation, […]
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  Working Paper No. 1036

  The Estimation of Production Functions with Monetary Values

  For decades, the literature on the estimation of production functions has focused on the elimination of endogeneity biases through different estimation procedures to obtain the correct factor elasticities and other relevant parameters. Theoretical discussions of the problem correctly assume that production functions are relationships among physical inputs and output. However, in practice, they are most […]
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  Working Paper No. 1035

  The Swedish Monetary System from a Balance Sheet Perspective

  In this paper, we discuss the balance sheet mechanics of the Swedish government. We examine spending, government bond purchases, and tax payments. As long as the Swedish central bank, which is created through Swedish laws, supports the Swedish central government, it cannot run out of money. The Swedish government therefore plays a large role in […]
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  Event

  31st Annual Levy Economics Institute Conference

  The 31st Annual Levy Economics Institute Conference was a one-day, virtual event organized around the topics of Economic Prospects for the US Economy, The Revival of Industrial Policy, Causes and Measurement of Inequality, and Aging and Public Policy: Debunking Myths, Providing Solutions.
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  One-Pager No. 71

  Has the Time Arrived for a Job Guarantee in Europe?

  In comparison to the policy responses in the aftermath of the 2008–9 global financial crisis, the reactions of EU policymakers to the combined shocks of the COVID-19 crisis and Ukraine-Russia conflict reveal a greater willingness to deploy public finance in support of the population. Yet, while this display of renewed solidarity is commendable, policymakers have […]