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Working Paper No. 990Ecological Fiscal Transfers and State-level Budgetary Spending in India
Using panel data models, we analyze the flypaper effects—whether intergovernmental fiscal transfers or states’ own income determine expenditure commitments—on ecological fiscal spending in India. The econometric results show that the unconditional fiscal transfers, rather than the states’ own income, determine ecological expenditure in the forestry sector at subnational levels in India. The results hold when […] -
Public Policy Brief No. 155Can Biden Build Back Better?
President Biden’s proposals for investing in social and physical infrastructure signal a return to a budget-neutral policymaking framework that has largely been set aside since the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. According Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray, this focus on ensuring revenues keep pace with spending increases can undermine the goals internal to both […] -
Press ReleaseBiden Infrastructure and Families Plans Would Have Significant Positive Macroeconomic Benefits for US Economy, New Levy Economics Institute Study Says
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BlogPodcast on Gender Budgeting
Research Associate Lekha Chakraborty, recently chosen to join the governing council of the International Institute for Public Finance, was interviewed for an Onmanorama podcast on the question of gender budgeting and the advantages of centering care work. Chakraborty argues policymakers in India should prioritize integrating a comprehensive care economy policy package in macroeconomic management, and [...] -
Strategic AnalysisThe Pandemic, the Stimulus, and the Future Prospects for the US Economy
In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Research Scholars Michalis Nikiforos and Gennaro Zezza analyze how the US economy was affected by the pandemic and its prospects for recovery. Their baseline simulation using the Institute’s stock-flow macroeconometric model shows a significant pickup in the growth rate in 2021 as a result of the American […] -
Working Paper No. 989
The Endogeneity-to-Demand of the National Emergency Utilization Rate
The paper provides an empirical discussion of the national emergency utilization rate (NEUR), which is based on a “national emergency” definition of potential output and is published by the US Census Bureau. Over the peak-to-peak period 1989–2019, the NEUR decreased by 14.2 percent. The paper examines the trajectory of potential determinants of capacity utilization over […] -
Policy Notes No. 3Why President Biden Should Eliminate Corporate Taxes to Build Back Better
Edward Lane and L. Randall Wray explain how federal taxes on corporate profits are not well suited to either containing inflationary pressures or reducing inequality. They are not only a poor complement to President Biden’s proposed infrastructure plans, but are inefficient and ineffective taxes more broadly, according to Lane and Wray. The authors follow Hyman […] -
One-Pager No. 67Should Corporate Tax Hikes Be Included in Biden’s “Build Back Better” Plans?
President Biden has proposed pairing his American Jobs Plan with an increase in federal corporate income taxes. Leaving aside the issue of whether any tax increases are needed to “pay for” the plan, Edward Lane and L. Randall Wray assess the proposed corporate profits tax hike in terms of its ability to meet two objectives: […] -
Working Paper No. 988
A Keynesian Approach to Modeling the Long-Term Interest Rate
There are several widely used benchmark models of the long-term interest rate in quantitative finance. However, these models have yet to incorporate Keynes’s valuable insights about interest rate dynamics. The Keynesian approach to interest rate dynamics can be readily incorporated in the benchmark models of the long-term interest rate. This paper modifies several benchmark interest […] -
Strategic Analysis
Restarting the Greek Economy?
The Greek economy—still fragile due to the lingering effects of the 2009–10 crisis—was hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Greece’s 2020 GDP decline was one of the worst among the group of EU and eurozone member states, along with the highest levels of unemployment and underemployment. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Christos Pierros, Nikos Rodousakis, and […] -
Strategic Analysis
Επανεκκινηση της Ελληνικης Οικονομιας;
Tελευταία έκθεση Στρατηγικών Αναλύσεων του Levy Economics Institute που αφορά στις προοπτικές και την επανεκκίνηση της ελληνικής οικονομίας στην μετά-COVID-19 εποχή.Σύμφωνα με τα εμπειρικά ευρήματα η οικονομική μεγένθυση της ελληνικής οικονομίας, αναφορικά με το βασικό σενάριο, εκτιμάται ότι θα είναι 3,4% το 2021 και 4,9% 2022. Τα ευρήματα αυτά δείχνουν ότι η ελληνική οικονομία δεν […] -
Policy Notes No. 2
Gender and Race in the Spotlight during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Research Scholar Luiza Nassif-Pires, Luísa Cardoso, and Ana Luíza Matos de Oliveira analyze the importance of the “emergency benefit” (Auxílio Emergencial) in containing the increase in poverty and extreme poverty in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic. They find the emergency benefit mitigated the loss of income, brought the poverty rate to historically low levels, and […]