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  Strategic Analysis

  As the Implosion Begins . . . ?

  Distinguished Scholar Wynne Godley and Research Scholar Alex Izurieta respond to Jan Hatzius’s rebuttal of their July 2001 Strategic Analysis, in which they stated that the American economy was probably already in recession, and that a prolonged period of subnormal growth and rising unemployment was likely unless there were another round of policy changes. Hatzius, […]
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  Working Paper No. 334

  Reflections on the Current Fashion for Central Bank Independence

  This paper challenges the time-inconsistency case for central bank independence. It argues that the time-inconsistency literature not only seriously confuses the substance of the rules versus discretion debate, but also posits an implausible view of monetary policy. Most worrisome, the inflationary bias featured prominently in the time-inconsistency literature has encouraged the development of a dangerously […]
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  Policy Notes No. 7

  The New Old Economy

  Consensus opinion sees the United States’ economy growing by around 3 percent per year over the next few years, a high enough rate to keep unemployment low and outpace Europe. One problem with the consensus view is that it pays little heed to the very unusual nature of the American expansion. A minor downturn prompted […]
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  Strategic Analysis

  As the Implosion Begins . . . ?

  The American economy is probably now in recession, and a prolonged period of subnormal growth and rising unemployment is likely unless there is another round of policy changes. A further relaxation of fiscal policy will probably be needed, but if a satisfactory rate of growth is to be sustained, this will have to be complemented […]
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  Public Policy Brief Highlight No. 64

  Campaign Contributions, Policy Decisions, and Election Outcomes

  Proposals for campaign finance reform are essentially based on the belief that political influence can be bought with financial donations to a candidate’s campaign. But do contributions really influence the decisions of legislators once they are in office? In this brief, Christopher Magee examines the link between campaign donations and legislators’ actions. His results suggest […]
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  Working Paper No. 333

  Toward a Population History of the Second Generation

  Past-present comparisons of second-generation progress are often plagued by vague references to the baseline, the past. This essay seeks to contribute some specificity to the understanding of second generations past for the sake of comparison and as a contribution to historical understanding in its own right. First, it defines the older second-generation groups that make […]
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  Working Paper No. 332

  Contradictions Coming Home to Roost?

  It is widely believed that the current economic slowdown will be mild and temporary in nature, the result of a momentary wobble in the stock market. This paper argues that the slowdown stands to be more deep-seated, owing to contradictions in the existing process of aggregate demand generation. These contradictions are the result of deterioration […]
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  Public Policy Brief No. 64

  Campaign Contributions, Policy Decisions, and Election Outcomes

  Proposals for campaign finance reform are essentially based on the belief that political influence can be bought with financial donations to a candidate’s campaign. But do contributions really influence the decisions of legislators once they are in office? In this brief, Christopher Magee examines the link between campaign donations and legislators’ actions. His results suggest […]
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  Policy Notes No. 6

  Killing Social Security Softly with Faux Kindness

  The President’s commission claims that the Social Security program is “unsustainable” and requires a complete “overhaul.” It also claims that the program is a bad deal for women and minorities. However, any honest accounting of all Social Security benefits finds that the program is a good deal for disadvantaged groups. Social Security will become a […]
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  Report No. 2

  Report June 2001

  At the Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference, summarized in this issue, participants discussed changes in the financial structure and their impact on the financial market and on policy, the current state of the American economy and the ability of monetary and/or fiscal policy to stem what appears to be a slowdown, and the causes of […]
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  Working Paper No. 331

  Skills, Computerization, and Earnings in the Postwar US Economy

  Using both time-series and pooled cross-section, time-series data for 44 industries in the United States over the period 1947–97, the authors find no evidence to support the idea that the growth of skills or educational attainment had any statistically significant effect on growth of earnings. However, earnings growth is found to be positively related to […]
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  Working Paper No. 330

  Is Wealth Becoming More Polarized in the United States?

  Recent work has documented a rising degree of wealth inequality in the United States between 1983 and 1998. In this paper we look at another dimension of the distribution: polarization. Using techniques developed by Esteban and Ray (1994) and extended by D’Ambrosia (2001), we examine whether a similar pattern exists with regard to trends in […]