Publications

50 publications found, searching for 'Interest Rates '

• Policy Note No. 2025/10
  December 22, 2025

  The Fed Lowered Rates Again. Is It Really a Surprise?

  Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  The whole world was watching on December 10, 2025 to finally find out what the Fed was going to do. Big money bets were placed—would the Fed leave rates unchanged…more

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• Policy Note No. 2025/7
  September 19, 2025

  No, the Fed Is NOT Independent—It Is a Creature of Congress

  Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  In response to President Trump’s attack on the Federal Reserve, the natural critics of misguided monetary policy find themselves defending the Fed and the notion that the Fed is—and must…more

  Download Policy Note No. 2025/7 PDF (186.35 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1085
  July 17, 2025

  Fiscal Deficit and Term Structure of Interest Rate Links on Corporate Investment

  Lekha S. Chakraborty and C. Prasanth
  Abstract

  Using high-frequency macro data from a financially deregulated regime, this paper examines whether there is any evidence of financial crowding out in India. The macroeconomic channel through which financial crowding…more

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• Working Paper No. 1072
  December 12, 2024

  Macro-Financial Models of Canadian Dollar Interest Rate Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the dynamics of Canadian dollar–denominated (CAD) interest rate swap yields. It applies autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models, using monthly time series data, to estimate the effects of…more

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• Working Paper No. 1053
  June 07, 2024

  Foreign Deficit and Economic Policy: The Case of Mexico

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The article analyzes Mexico under globalization, particularly on the free mobility of capital. It argues that globalization has detrimentally impacted the productive and external sectors, causing the economy to become…more

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• Working Paper No. 1051
  May 10, 2024

  Euro Interest Rate Swap Yields: Some ARDL Models

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper examines the dynamics of euro-denominated (EUR) long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant effect on EUR swap…more

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• Working Paper No. 1034
  December 08, 2023

  Euro Interest Rate Swap Yields: A GARCH Analysis

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper models the month-over-month change in euro-denominated (EUR) long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the change in the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant…more

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• Working Paper No. 1026
  August 01, 2023

  Banking Sector, Distributive Conflict, and Monetary Theory of Distribution

  Riccardo Zolea
  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the implications of distributional contrast for the monetary theory of distribution. The first step is to try to introduce the banking sector within Pivetti's monetary distribution theory…more

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• Policy Note No. 2023/3
  July 24, 2023

  In Defense of Low Interest Rates

  James K. Galbraith
  Abstract

  In recalling John Maynard Keynes’s revolutionary theory of interest, reviewing the doctrines Keynes sought to overthrow, and analyzing the structural transformations of the US economy, James K. Galbraith maintains there…more

  Download Policy Note 2023/3 PDF (207.77 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1020
  June 28, 2023

  The Macrodynamics of Indian Rupee Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Indian rupee (INR) swap yields based on key macroeconomic factors using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the short-term interest…more

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• Working Paper No. 1019
  May 08, 2023

  An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models Japanese yen (JPY)–denominated interest rate swap yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate exerts an influence on the long-term JPY swap yield after controlling for…more

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• Working Paper No. 1014
  February 16, 2023

  Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan (CNY)–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. The financial sector plays a vital role in the Chinese economy, which has grown rapidly in…more

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• Working Paper No. 1012
  December 16, 2022

  An Analysis of UK Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  John Maynard Keynes argued that the central bank influences the long-term interest rate through the effect of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. However, Keynes's claim was confined…more

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• Working Paper No. 1011
  September 27, 2022

  The Dynamics of Monthly Changes in US Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  John Maynard Keynes (1930) asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows…more

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• Working Paper No. 1008
  May 24, 2022

  A GARCH Approach to Modeling Chilean Long-Term Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of the Chilean interbank swap yields based on macroeconomic factors. It examines whether the month-over-month change in the short-term interest rate has a decisive…more

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• Working Paper No. 991
  July 12, 2021

  Multifactor Keynesian Models of the Long-Term Interest Rate

  Tanweer Akram
  Abstract

  This paper presents multifactor Keynesian models of the long-term interest rate. In recent years there have been a proliferation of empirical studies based on the Keynesian approach to interest rate…more

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• Working Paper No. 988
  June 04, 2021

  A Keynesian Approach to Modeling the Long-Term Interest Rate

  Tanweer Akram
  Abstract

  There are several widely used benchmark models of the long-term interest rate in quantitative finance. However, these models have yet to incorporate Keynes’s valuable insights about interest rate dynamics. The…more

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• Working Paper No. 984
  February 05, 2021

  The Empirics of Long-Term Mexican Government Bond Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Syed Al-Helal Uddin
  Abstract

  This paper presents empirical models of Mexican government bond (MGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data. The current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on MGB yields, after controlling…more

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• Working Paper No. 977
  November 16, 2020

  A Note Concerning Government Bond Yields

  Tanweer Akram
  Abstract

  This paper relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with…more

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• Working Paper No. 974
  October 05, 2020

  The General Theory as “Depression Economics”?

  Jörg Bibow
  Abstract

  This paper revisits Keynes’s writings from Indian Currency and Finance (1913) to The General Theory (1936) with a focus on financial instability. The analysis reveals Keynes’s astute concerns about the…more

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• Working Paper No. 969
  September 24, 2020

  The Empirics of UK Gilts’ Yields

  Tanweer Akram and Huiqing Li
  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the nominal yields of UK gilt-edged securities (“gilts”) based on a Keynesian perspective, which holds that the short-term interest rate is the primary driver of the long-term…more

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• Working Paper No. 962
  July 14, 2020

  Some Empirical Models of Japanese Government Bond Yields Using Daily Data

  Tanweer Akram and Huiqing Li
  Abstract

  This paper models the dynamics of Japanese government bond (JGB) nominal yields using daily data. Models of government bond yields based on daily data, such as those presented in this…more

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• Working Paper No. 956
  May 19, 2020

  An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates

  Tanweer Akram and Syed Al-Helal Uddin
  Abstract

  This paper empirically models the dynamics of Brazilian government bond (BGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data in the context of the evolution of Brazil’s key macroeconomic variables. The results…more

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• Working Paper No. 951
  April 10, 2020

  A Simple Model of the Long-Term Interest Rate

  Tanweer Akram
  Abstract

  This paper presents a simple model of the long-term interest rate. The model represents John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that the central bank’s actions influence the long-term interest rate primarily through…more

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