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Strategic AnalysisOctober 01, 2003
Deficits, Debts, and Growth
AbstractThese are fast-moving times. Two years ago, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, 2001) projected a federal budget surplus of $172 billion for fiscal year 2003. Within a year, the projected…more
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Working Paper No. 392October 01, 2003
Understanding Deflation
AbstractDeflation can be defined as a falling general price level utilizing one of the common price indices.the consumer price index; the GDP deflator or other, narrower indices as the wholesale…more
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Policy Note No. 6September 03, 2003
Is International Growth the Way Out of US Current Account Deficits?
AbstractThe current account deficit of the United States has been growing steadily as a share of GDP for more than a decade. It is now at an all-time high, over…more
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Policy Note No. 5September 02, 2003
Deflation Worries
AbstractFor the first time since the 1930s, many worry that the world’s economy faces the prospect of deflation—accompanied by massive job losses—on a global scale. In a rather hopeful sign,…more
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Working Paper No. 387September 01, 2003
Measures of the Real GDP of US Trading Partners
AbstractThis paper provides the details of the construction of new quarterly measures of the real GDPs of the 36 trading partners that are taken into consideration by the Federal Reserve…more
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Working Paper No. 386September 01, 2003
Household Wealth, Public Consumption, and Economic Well-Being in the United States
Abstract*Preliminary draft. Please do not quote or cite without permission. Standard official measures of economic well-being are based on money income. The general consensus is that such measures are seriously…more
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Working Paper No. 391September 01, 2003
Aggregate Demand, Conflict, and Capacity in the Inflationary Process
AbstractThe dominant view relating to unemployment and inflation is that inflation will be constant at a level of unemployment (the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, NAIRU) determined on the supply…more
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Working Paper No. 390September 01, 2003
Savings of Entrepreneurs
AbstractPrevious work on entrepreneurship and wealth has documented that entrepreneurial households are wealthier and have higher wealth mobility. However, the literature has not paid attention to the components of wealth…more
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Working Paper No. 389September 01, 2003
Do Workers with Low Lifetime Earnings Really Have Low Earnings Every Year?
AbstractWhen it comes to retirement income policy, there is a general perception that workers have full 40-year working careers before retiring. Further, it is generally assumed that workers with low…more
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Working Paper No. 388September 01, 2003
Inflation Targeting
AbstractSince the early 1990s, a number of countries have adopted Inflation Targeting (IT) in an effort to reduce inflation. Most literature has praised IT as a superior framework of monetary…more
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Policy Note No. 4August 20, 2003
Pushing Germany Off the Cliff Edge
AbstractGermany’s fiscal crisis cannot be attributed to unification per se; it arose as a consequence of ill-guided macroeconomic policies pursued in response to that event. Many structural problems that popped…more
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Public Policy Brief No. 73August 03, 2003
Asset and Debt Deflation in the United States
AbstractIn an asset and debt deflation, the process of reducing debt by saving and curtailing spending takes a long time, say authors Philip Arestis and Elias Karakitsos. Current imbalances and…more
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Public Policy Brief No. 72August 02, 2003
What Is the American Model Really About?
AbstractThe “American Model” serves as a point of reference in discussions of economic policy around the world, especially in Europe. Many claim that the American version of the free market…more
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Working Paper No. 385July 01, 2003
Macroeconomic Policies of the Economic Monetary Union
AbstractThis paper presents two issues: first, an effort to decipher the theoretical and policy framework of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); and second, an argument that the challenges to…more
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Working Paper No. 384July 01, 2003
Minsky’s Acceleration Channel and the Role of Money
AbstractUsing Minsky (1986), this paper attempts to answer two questions: (1) How does policy affect real and nominal variables? and (2) How should monetary policy be conducted so as to…more
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Working Paper No. 383July 01, 2003
Financial Sector Reforms in Developing Countries with Special Reference to Egypt
AbstractFinancial reforms, and financial liberalization in particular, have been at the root of many recent cases of financial and banking crises. In several countries financial reforms allowed real interest rates…more
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Policy Note No. 3June 01, 2003
Caring for a Large Geriatric Generation
AbstractThe time has more than come to begin planning seriously for the aging of the baby-boom generation. The need for planning goes beyond concerns about the solvency of Social Security…more
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Working Paper No. 379May 01, 2003
Is Europe Doomed to Stagnation?
AbstractThis paper challenges the view that external shocks caused Euroland’s 2001 slowdown and subsequent stagnation. Instead, the design of Euroland’s macro policymaking arrangements is found lacking in looking after sufficient…more
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Working Paper No. 378May 01, 2003
The Conditions for Sustainable US Recovery
AbstractThe anemic US economic recovery and the threat of a double-dip recession stem from the weakness of investment, due to excess capacity created in the euphoric years of the "new…more
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Working Paper No. 382May 01, 2003
The Case for Fiscal Policy
AbstractThis paper reconsiders the case for the use of fiscal policy based on a “functional finance” approach that advocates the use of fiscal policy to secure high levels of demand…more
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Working Paper No. 381May 01, 2003
Reinventing Fiscal Policy
AbstractRecent developments in macroeconomic policy, in terms of both theory and practice, have elevated monetary policy while downgrading fiscal policy. Monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates…more
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Working Paper No. 380May 01, 2003
How Long Can the US Consumers Carry the Economy on Their Shoulders?
AbstractThe consumer has been on a tightrope since the bursting of the "new economy" bubble, as losses in equity markets have been partly offset by gains in real estate and…more
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Working Paper No. 377April 01, 2003
Finance and Development
AbstractThere are many recent worldwide examples of severe financial crises that are linked to periods of financial liberalization. Given the ubiquity of these crises, there is the legitimate question of…more
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Working Paper No. 376April 01, 2003
Mexicans Now, Italians Then
AbstractThis working paper continues earlier efforts to compare the experiences of today’s second-generation Mexican Americans with those of second-generation members of major immigrant groups of a century ago. Here the…more
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