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Strategic AnalysisThe Developing US Recession and Guidelines for Policy
October 01, 2001 The United States should now be prepared for one of the deepest and most intractable recessions of the post–World War II period, with no natural process of recovery in prospect...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 339Uncertainty, Conventional Behavior, and Economic Sociology
October 01, 2001 This paper addresses the problem of the conceptualization of social structure and its relationship to human agency in economic sociology. The background is provided by John Maynard Keynes’s observations on...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 9Hard Times, Easy Money?
September 01, 2001 The tools of countercyclical monetary policy have been brought fully to bear on a potentially severe recession. This note argues, however, that such a policy is less effective in times...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 338
The Monetary Policies of the European Central Bank and the Euro’s (Mal)performance
September 01, 2001 The stability-oriented macroeconomic framework established in the Maastricht and Amsterdam Treaties on European Union (TEU), especially the unparalleled status of independence and peculiar mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB),...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 336
The Role of Institutions and Policies in Creating High European Unemployment
August 01, 2001 The conventional wisdom is that high European unemployment is the result of job markets that are rigid and inflexible. This paper presents new empirical evidence that challenges this received wisdom....more Publication -
Working Paper No. 335
Young Mexican Americans, Blacks, and Whites in Recent Years
August 01, 2001 This paper stresses that the key to concerns about the progress of second-generation Americans is the fate of the Mexican second generation. It compares several indicators of the advances of...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 8
The War Economy
August 01, 2001 There is no chance that events will right themselves in a few weeks, or that we will be saved by such underlying factors as technology and productivity growth or by...more Publication -
Public Policy Brief No. 65Easy Money through the Back Door
August 01, 2001 This brief assesses the experiences of Europe’s policy regime in the two years since the introduction of the euro in 1999, particularly the performance of the European Central Bank (ECB),...more Publication -
Strategic Analysis
As the Implosion Begins . . . ?
August 01, 2001 Distinguished Scholar Wynne Godley and Research Scholar Alex Izurieta respond to Jan Hatzius’s rebuttal of their July 2001 Strategic Analysis, in which they stated that the American economy was probably...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 337
Can Countries under a Common Currency Conduct Their Own Fiscal Policies?
August 01, 2001 The debate about balance of payment problems is generally linked with adjustments in the fiscal sector, especially since the views of Bretton Woods institutions became predominant. For the majority of...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 334
Reflections on the Current Fashion for Central Bank Independence
July 01, 2001 This paper challenges the time-inconsistency case for central bank independence. It argues that the time-inconsistency literature not only seriously confuses the substance of the rules versus discretion debate, but also...more Publication -
Strategic Analysis
As the Implosion Begins . . . ?
July 01, 2001 The American economy is probably now in recession, and a prolonged period of subnormal growth and rising unemployment is likely unless there is another round of policy changes. A further...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 7
The New Old Economy
July 01, 2001 Consensus opinion sees the United States’ economy growing by around 3 percent per year over the next few years, a high enough rate to keep unemployment low and outpace Europe....more Publication -
Working Paper No. 333
Toward a Population History of the Second Generation
June 01, 2001 Past-present comparisons of second-generation progress are often plagued by vague references to the baseline, the past. This essay seeks to contribute some specificity to the understanding of second generations past...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 332
Contradictions Coming Home to Roost?
June 01, 2001 It is widely believed that the current economic slowdown will be mild and temporary in nature, the result of a momentary wobble in the stock market. This paper argues that...more Publication -
Public Policy Brief No. 64
Campaign Contributions, Policy Decisions, and Election Outcomes
June 01, 2001 Proposals for campaign finance reform are essentially based on the belief that political influence can be bought with financial donations to a candidate’s campaign. But do contributions really influence the...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 6
Killing Social Security Softly with Faux Kindness
June 01, 2001 The President’s commission claims that the Social Security program is “unsustainable” and requires a complete “overhaul.” It also claims that the program is a bad deal for women and minorities....more Publication -
Working Paper No. 328
On the “Burden” of German Unification
May 01, 2001 This paper investigates the causes of western Germany’s remarkably poor performance since 1992. The paper challenges the view that the poor record of the nineties, particularly the marked deterioration in...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 5
The Backward Art of Tax Cutting
May 01, 2001 This policy note examines the case for large tax cuts, focusing on the issues surrounding the purpose and overall size of the needed cut. Although Congress has passed a significant...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 331
Skills, Computerization, and Earnings in the Postwar US Economy
May 01, 2001 Using both time-series and pooled cross-section, time-series data for 44 industries in the United States over the period 1947–97, the authors find no evidence to support the idea that the...more Publication -
Working Paper No. 330
Is Wealth Becoming More Polarized in the United States?
May 01, 2001 Recent work has documented a rising degree of wealth inequality in the United States between 1983 and 1998. In this paper we look at another dimension of the distribution: polarization....more Publication -
Working Paper No. 329
Reporting of Two or More Races in the 1999 American Community Survey
May 01, 2001 This study presents data on race, collected at selected sites throughout the country for the 1999 American Community Survey (ACS). In particular, the distribution of the population by race and...more Publication -
Policy Note No. 4
Put Your Chips on 35
April 01, 2001 According to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, we live in a time “profoundly different from the typical postwar business cycle.” Our experiences have “defied conventional wisdom” and mark ”veritable shifts...more Publication -
Public Policy Brief No. 63
The Future of the Euro
March 01, 2001 This brief provides a detailed description of the Stability and Growth Pact, an agreement entered into by the member states of the European Union that has far-reaching implications for the...more Publication