Publications

30 publications found, searching for 'Inflation '

• Working Paper No. 1080 April 04, 2025

  Protecting Social Security: The Case Against Extending the Full Retirement Age

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  The Social Security “full retirement age” (FRA) is the age at which retirement income benefits are available without reduction for early commencement. Presently, that age is 67 for those born in 1960 or later. This paper is about the unfair and unnecessary threat to reduce Social Security retirement income benefits (Romig 2023) by extending the […]

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• Working Paper No. 1069 December 10, 2024

  Tax Credits Are Industrial Policy

  Chirag Lala
  Abstract

  Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 19, March 2024 The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is criticized for “derisking” private investment by increasing the gains to private firms. The derisking critique argues that the IRA insufficiently disciplines private firms; it does not utilize legal or financial penalties which would force firms to undertake green investment […]

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• Policy Notes November 04, 2024

  Inflation

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  Edward Lane surveys some of the main potential contributors to the recent period of elevated inflation rates in the US economy—focusing on supply disruptions, inflation-adjusted consumer spending, and consumer spending attributable to price markups—­and outlines prominent proposals being made by the 2024 presidential candidates that may have an impact on inflation.

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• Working Paper No. 1042 February 13, 2024

  Saving Social Security

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  For more than 25 years, the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to run out of money in 2033 (give or take a few years), potentially causing benefits to be severely reduced in the absence of corrective legislative action. Today (February 2024), projections are made by the Social Security Administration that indicate that future benefits […]

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• Working Paper No. 1037 January 10, 2024

  Markups, Profit Shares, and Cost-Push-Profit-Led Inflation

  Michalis Nikiforos, and Simon Grothe
  Abstract

  The post-pandemic surge in inflation was accompanied by a surge in the corporate share of profits. As a result, several economists and policy makers have given to it names such as “profit-led inflation” or “sellers’ inflation.” The present paper discusses the extent to which profit-led inflation, as an explanation for the recent surge in inflation, […]

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• Working Paper No. 1028 August 21, 2023

  Contractionary Effects of Foreign Price Shocks (and Potentially Expansionary Effects of Inflation)

  Michalis Nikiforos, and Simon Grothe
  Abstract

  Using the model proposed in Krugman and Taylor’s “Contractionary effects of devaluation” (1978), we examine the macroeconomic effects of shocks to foreign prices. We show that these shocks can be contractionary for two reasons: (i) because they imply a loss of income if an economy has a trade deficit or import prices increase proportionally more […]

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• Strategic Analysis July 20, 2023

  Will the US Debt Ceiling Deal Derail the Pandemic Recovery?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, Michalis Nikiforos, and Giuliano Toshiro Yajima
  Abstract

  In this Strategic Analysis, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Michalis Nikiforos, Giuliano T. Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza discuss how the current state and structural features of the US economy might affect its future trajectory. The recent recovery after the pandemic has been remarkable, when compared to previous cycles, and offers evidence of the efficacy of fiscal policy. […]

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• Working Paper No. 1022 July 12, 2023

  Has the Time for a European Job Guarantee Policy Arrived?

  Rania Antonopoulos
  Abstract

  As country after country in the European Union is called to respond to the current challenge of our time—high inflation and declining real wages—governments must engage in a transformative agenda and go beyond emergency energy vouchers and income support cash-transfers. And if the goal is to lead the way to a resilient and sustainable European […]

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• Working Paper No. 1020 June 28, 2023

  The Macrodynamics of Indian Rupee Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Indian rupee (INR) swap yields based on key macroeconomic factors using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term INR swap yields after controlling for other factors, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the […]

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• Working Paper No. 1019 May 08, 2023

  An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models Japanese yen (JPY)–denominated interest rate swap yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate exerts an influence on the long-term JPY swap yield after controlling for several key macroeconomic variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percentage change in the equity price index, and the percentage change […]

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• One-Pager December 07, 2022

  The Causes of Pandemic Inflation

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  While the trigger for the Covid recession was unusual—a collapse of the supply side that produced a drop in demand—the inflation the US economy is now facing is not atypical, according to L. Randall Wray. In this one-pager, he explores the causes of the current inflationary environment, arguing that continuing inflation pressures come mostly from […]

  Download One-Pager No. 70 PDF (128.13 KB)
• Strategic Analysis October 13, 2022

  Greece: Recovery, or Another Recession?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  In this strategic analysis, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza, and Research Associate Nikolaos Rodousakis discuss the medium-term prospects for the Greek economy in a time of increasing uncertainty—due to the geopolitical turbulence emanating from the Ukraine–Russian conflict, with its impact on the cost of energy, as well as the increase in […]

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• Strategic Analysis October 13, 2022

  Ελλάδα: Ανάκαμψη, ή μια νέα Ύφεση;

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  Σε αυτή τη στρατηγική ανάλυση, ο Πρόεδρος του Ινστιτούτου Δημήτρης Παπαδημητρίου, ο ερευνητής Gennaro Zezza και ο επιστημονικός συνεργάτης Νίκος Ροδουσάκης αναλύουν τις μεσοπρόθεσμες προοπτικές για την ελληνική οικονομία, σε μια περίοδο αυξανόμενης αβεβαιότητας, λόγω των γεωπολιτικών αναταραχών που προέρχονται από την Ρώσο-Ουκρανική σύγκρουση με αντίκτυπό το υψηλό κόστος ενέργειας και αυξημένων διεθνών τιμών εισαγόμενων […]

  Download ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΣΤΡΑΤΗΓΙΚΗ ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗ 10 2022 PDF (1.27 MB)
• Working Paper No. 1003 March 04, 2022

  What’s Causing Accelerating Inflation

  L. Randall Wray, and Yeva Nersisyan
  Abstract

  This paper examines the recent increase of the measured inflation rate to assess the degree to which the acceleration is due to problems created (largely on the supply side) by the pandemic versus pressures created on the demand side by pandemic relief. Some have attributed the inflation to excess demand, most notably Larry Summers, who […]

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• Working Paper No. 996 December 13, 2021

  Seven Replies to the Critiques of Modern Money Theory

  Abstract

  Modern Money Theory (MMT) has generated considerable scrutiny and discussions over the past decade. While it has gained some acceptance in the financial sector and among some politicians, it has come under strong criticisms from all sides of the academic spectrum and from conservative political circles. MMT has been argued to be both fascist and […]

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• Public Policy Brief No. 156 December 08, 2021

  Still Flying Blind after All These Years

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray contend that the prevailing approach to monetary policy and inflation is influenced by a set of concepts that are a poor guide to action. In this policy brief, they examine two previous cases in which the Federal Reserve misread the data and raised rates […]

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• One-Pager No. 68 November 01, 2021

  Are Concerns over Growing Federal Government Debt Misplaced?

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  With the US Treasury cutting checks totaling approximately $5 trillion to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray argues that when it comes to the federal government, concerns about affordability and solvency can both be laid to rest. According to Wray, the question is never whether the federal government can spend more, […]

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• Working Paper No. 991 July 12, 2021

  Multifactor Keynesian Models of the Long-Term Interest Rate

  Tanweer Akram
  Abstract

  This paper presents multifactor Keynesian models of the long-term interest rate. In recent years there have been a proliferation of empirical studies based on the Keynesian approach to interest rate modeling. However, standard multifactor models of the long-term interest rate in quantitative finance have not been yet incorporated Keynes’s insights about interest rate dynamics. Keynes’s […]

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• Working Paper No. 876 October 12, 2016

  Normalizing the Fed Funds Rate

  Flavia Dantas
  Abstract

  In December 2015, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) initiated the process of “normalization,” with the objective of gradually raising the federal funds rate back to “normal”—i.e., levels that are “neither expansionary nor contrary” and are consistent with the established 2 percent longer-run goal for the annual Personal Consumption Expenditures index and the estimated natural rate […]

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• Policy Notes No. 2 April 04, 2016

  The Narrow Path for Brazil

  Abstract

  Brazil is mired in a joint economic and political crisis, and the way out is unclear. In 2015 the country experienced a steep contraction of output alongside elevated inflation, all while the fallout from a series of corruption scandals left the policymaking apparatus paralyzed. Looking ahead, implementing a policy strategy that has any hope of […]

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• Working Paper No. 848 October 23, 2015

  Is Monetary Financing Inflationary?

  Josh Ryan-Collins
  Abstract

  Historically high levels of private and public debt coupled with already very low short-term interest rates appear to limit the options for stimulative monetary policy in many advanced economies today. One option that has not yet been considered is monetary financing by central banks to boost demand and/or relieve debt burdens. We find little empirical […]

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• Working Paper No. 816 September 30, 2014

  Coping with Imbalances in the Euro Area

  Eckhard Hein, and Daniel Detzer
  Abstract

  In this paper we outline alternative policy recommendations addressing the problems of differential inflation, divergence in competitiveness, and associated current account imbalances within the euro area. The major purpose of these alternative policy proposals is to generate sustainably high demand and output growth in the euro area as a whole, providing high levels of noninflationary […]

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• Working Paper No. 813 August 06, 2014

  Economic Policy in India

  Sunanda Sen, and Zico DasGupta
  Abstract

  The implementation of economic reforms under new economic policies in India was associated with a paradigmatic shift in monetary and fiscal policy. While monetary policies were solely aimed at “price stability” in the neoliberal regime, fiscal policies were characterized by the objective of maintaining “sound finance” and “austerity.” Such monetarist principles and measures have also […]

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• Working Paper No. 759 March 18, 2013

  Wages, Exchange Rates, and the Great Inflation Moderation

  Nathan Perry, and Nathaniel Cline
  Abstract

  Several explanations of the “great inflation moderation” (1982–2006) have been put forth, the most popular being that inflation was tamed due to good monetary policy, good luck (exogenous shocks such as oil prices), or structural changes such as inventory management techniques. Drawing from Post-Keynesian and structuralist theories of inflation, this paper uses a vector autoregression […]

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