Publications

Reports analyzing US economic performance and policies, based on our proprietary macro model

56 publications found, searching for 'Strategic Analysis '

• Strategic Analysis March 19, 2013

  Ισχύει ακόμη η σύνδεση παραγωγής και δημιουργίας θέσεων εργασίας;

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  Καθώς ετοιμάζεται να δημοσιευθεί η παρούσα έκθεση, η ανεργία παραμένει σε εξαιρετικά υψηλά επίπεδα ακόμη και σε σχέση με ανάλογα χρονικά σημεία από προηγούμενες περιόδους οικονομικής ανάκαμψης. Η οικονομία των ΗΠΑ φαίνεται να βιώνει για άλλη μια φορά μια «άνεργη» ανάκαμψη—αν και τα ποσοστά της ανεργίας μειώνονται σταθερά εδώ και χρόνια. Ταυτόχρονα, η δημοσιονομική λιτότητα […]

  Download Στρατηγικη Αναλυση, Μάρτιος 2013 PDF (3.79 MB)
• Strategic Analysis March 19, 2013

  Is the Link between Output and Jobs Broken?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  As this report goes to press, the official unemployment rate remains tragically elevated, compared even to rates at similar points in previous recoveries. The US economy seems once again to be in a “jobless recovery,” though the unemployment rate has been steadily declining for years. At the same time, fiscal austerity has arrived, with the […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2013 PDF (725.09 KB)
• Strategic Analysis April 15, 2012

  Πίσω στις συνήθεις τακτικές ή δημοσιονομική τόνωση;

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Αν και η οικονομία φαίνεται να βελτιώνεται σταδιακά, οι ευρείς δείκτες καταγράφουν ότι το 14.5% του αμερικανικού εργατικού δυναμικού είναι άνεργο ή υποαπασχολήσιμο, ποσοστό όχι πολύ χαμηλότερο από το 16.2% που ήταν πέρυσι. Στην καινούργια έκθεση της σειράς Στρατηγική Ανάλυση, αναφερόμαστε αρχικά στους βραδυκίνητους παράγοντες που δυσκολεύουν την επίτευξη μιας ολοκληρωμένης και βιώσιμης οικονομικής ανάκαμψης: […]

  Download Στρατηγική Ανάλυση, Απρίλιος 2012 PDF (1.09 MB)
• Strategic Analysis April 15, 2012

  Back to Business as Usual? Or a Fiscal Boost?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Though the economy appears to be gradually gaining momentum, broad measures indicate that 14.5 percent of the US labor force is unemployed or underemployed, not much below the 16.2 percent rate reached a full year ago. In this new report in our Strategic Analysis series, we first discuss several slow-moving factors that make it difficult […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2012 PDF (522.53 KB)
• Strategic Analysis December 06, 2011

  Is the Recovery Sustainable?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Fiscal austerity is now a worldwide phenomenon, and the global growth slowdown is highly unfavorable for policymakers at the national level. According to our Macro Modeling Team’s baseline forecast, fears of prolonged stagnation and a moribund employment market are well justified. Assuming no change in the value of the dollar or interest rates, and deficit […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, December 2011 PDF (1.87 MB)
• Strategic Analysis December 06, 2011

  Είναι βιώσιμη η ανάκαμψη;

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Η δημοσιονομική λιτότητα είναι πλέον ένα παγκόσμιο φαινόμενο και η επιβράδυνση της παγκόσμιας ανάπτυξης δεν ευνοεί τις προοπτικές της δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής σε εθνικό επίπεδο. Σύμφωνα με τις baseline προβλέψεις της Ομάδας Μακροοικονομικής Ανάλυσης στο Ινστιτούτο Οικονομικών Λίβι, οι φόβοι για μια οικονομική στασιμότητα μεγάλης διάρκειας και μια παγωμένη αγορά εργασίας είναι απόλυτα δικαιολογημένοι. Υποθέτοντας ότι […]

  Download Στρατηγική Ανάλυση, Δεκέμβριος 2011 PDF (1.39 MB)
• Strategic Analysis March 10, 2011

  Jobless Recovery Is No Recovery: Prospects for the US Economy

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The US economy grew reasonably fast during the last quarter of 2010, and the general expectation is that satisfactory growth will continue in 2011–12. The expansion may, indeed, continue into 2013. But with large deficits in both the government and foreign sectors, satisfactory growth in the medium term cannot be achieved without a major, sustained […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2011 PDF (2.96 MB)
• Strategic Analysis March 10, 2010

  Getting Out of the Recession?

  Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Research Scholar Gennaro Zezza updates the Levy Institute’s previous Strategic Analysis (December 2009) and finds that the 2009 increase in public sector aggregate demand was a result of the fiscal stimulus, without which the recession would have been much deeper. He confirms that strong policy action is required to achieve full employment in the medium […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2010 PDF (577.07 KB)
• Strategic Analysis December 03, 2009

  Sustaining Recovery: Medium-term Prospects and Policies for the US Economy

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Though recent market activity and housing reports give some warrant for optimism, United States economic growth was only 2.8 percent in the third quarter, and the unemployment rate is still very high. In their new Strategic Analysis, the Levy Institute’s Macro-Modeling Team project that high unemployment will continue to be a problem if fiscal stimulus […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, December 2009 PDF (2.30 MB)
• Strategic Analysis April 09, 2009

  Recent Rise in Federal Government and Federal Reserve Liabilities: Antidote to a Speculative Hangover

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  Abstract

  Federal government and Federal Reserve (Fed) liabilities rose sharply in 2008. Who holds these new liabilities, and what effects will they have on the economy? Some economists and politicians warn of impending inflation. In this new Strategic Analysis, the Levy Institute’s Macro-Modeling Team focuses on one positive effect—a badly needed improvement of private sector balance […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2009 PDF (369.83 KB)
• Strategic Analysis April 02, 2009

  A “People First” Strategy: Credit Cannot Flow When There Are No Creditworthy Borrowers or Profitable Projects

  James K. Galbraith
  Abstract

  In 1930, John Maynard Keynes wrote: “The world has been slow to realise that we are living this year in the shadow of one of the greatest economic catastrophes of modern history.” The same holds true today: we are in the shadow of a global catastrophe, and we need to come to grips with the […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2009 PDF (77.26 KB)
• Strategic Analysis January 06, 2009

  Flow of Funds Figures Show the Largest Drop in Household Borrowing in the Last 40 Years

  Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The Federal Reserve’s latest flow-of-funds data reveal that household borrowing has fallen sharply lower, bringing about a reversal of the upward trend in household debt. According to the Levy Institute’s macro model, a fall in borrowing has an immediate effect—accounting in this case for most of the 3 percent drop in private expenditure that occurred […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, January 2009 PDF (97.63 KB)
• Strategic Analysis December 24, 2008

  Prospects for the United States and the World: A Crisis That Conventional Remedies Cannot Resolve

  Wynne Godley, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The economic recovery plans currently under consideration by the United States and many other countries seem to be concentrated on the possibility of using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies alone. In a new Strategic Analysis, the Levy Institute’s Macro-Modeling Team argues that, however well coordinated, this approach will not be sufficient; what’s required, they say, […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, December 2008 PDF (656.93 KB)
• Strategic Analysis April 09, 2008

  Fiscal Stimulus—Is More Needed?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  As the government prepares to dispense the tax rebates that largely make up its recently approved $168 billion stimulus package, President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Research Scholars Greg Hannsgen and Gennaro Zezza explore the possibility of an additional fiscal stimulus of about $450 billion spread over three quarters—challenging the notion that a larger and more […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2008 PDF (272.57 KB)
• Strategic Analysis November 30, 2007

  The US Economy: Is There a Way Out of the Woods?

  Wynne Godley, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In their latest Strategic Analysis, Distinguished Scholar Wynne Godley, President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Research Scholars Greg Hannsgen and Gennaro Zezza review recent events in the housing and financial markets to obtain a likely scenario for the evolution of household spending in the United States. They forecast a significant drop in borrowing and private expenditure […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, November 2007 PDF (316.57 KB)
• Strategic Analysis April 30, 2007

  The US Economy: What’s Next?

  Wynne Godley, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The collapse in the subprime mortgage market, along with multiple signals of distress in the broader housing market, has already drawn forth a large body of comment. Some people think the upheaval will turn out to be contagious, causing a major slowdown or even a recession later in 2007. Others believe that the turmoil will […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2007 PDF (622.28 KB)
• Strategic Analysis November 14, 2006

  Can Global Imbalances Continue?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this new Strategic Analysis, we review what we believe is the most important economic policy issue facing policymakers in the United States and abroad: the prospect of a growth recession in the United States. The possibility of recession is linked to the imbalances in the current account, government, and private sector deficits. The current […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, November 2006 PDF (428.17 KB)
• Strategic Analysis May 18, 2006

  Can the Growth in the US Current Account Deficit Be Sustained?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Edward Chilcote
  Abstract

  Can the growth in the current account deficit be sustained? How does the flow of deficits feed the stock of debt? How will the burden of servicing this debt affect future deficits and economic growth? President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Research Scholars Edward Chilcote and Gennaro Zezza address these and other questions in a new […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, May 2006 PDF (300.40 KB)
• Strategic Analysis January 01, 2006

  Are Housing Prices, Household Debt, and Growth Sustainable?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Edward Chilcote
  Abstract

  Rising home prices and low interest rates have fueled the recent surge in mortgage borrowing and enabled consumers to spend at high rates relative to their income. Low interest rates have counterbalanced the growth in debt and acted to dampen the growth in household debt-service burdens. As past Levy Institute Strategic Analyses have pointed out, […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, January 2006 PDF (342.12 KB)
• Strategic Analysis September 06, 2005

  The United States and Her Creditors

  Claudio H. Dos Santos, Wynne Godley, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The main arguments in this paper can be simply stated: 1) If output in the United States grows fast enough to keep unemployment constant between now and 2010, and if there is no further depreciation in the dollar, the deficit in the balance of trade is likely to get worse, perhaps reaching 7.5 per cent […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, September 2005 PDF (1.24 MB)
• Strategic Analysis March 01, 2005

  How Fragile Is the US Economy?

  Claudio H. Dos Santos, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Anwar M. Shaikh, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  As we projected in a previous Strategic Analysis, the United States’ economy experienced growth rates higher than 4 percent in 2004. The question we want to raise in this Strategic Analysis is whether these rates will persist or come back down. We believe that several signs point in the latter direction. In what follows, we […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, March 2005 PDF (727.46 KB)
• Strategic Analysis August 01, 2004

  Prospects and Policies for the US Economy

  Wynne Godley, Alex Izurieta, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  The American economy has grown reasonably fast since the second half of 2003, and the general expectation seems to be that satisfactory growth will continue more or less indefinitely. This paper argues that the expansion may indeed continue through 2004 and for some time beyond. But with the government and external deficits both so large […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, August 2004 PDF (668.60 KB)
• Strategic Analysis April 01, 2004

  Is Deficit-financed Growth Limited?

  Claudio H. Dos Santos, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Anwar M. Shaikh, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  Wynne Godley, our Levy Institute colleague, has warned since 1999 that the falling personal saving and rising borrowing trends that had powered the US economic expansion were not sustainable. He also warned that when these trends were reversed, as has happened in other countries, the expansion would come to a halt unless there were major […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, April 2004 PDF (728.10 KB)
• Strategic Analysis October 01, 2003

  Deficits, Debts, and Growth

  Claudio H. Dos Santos, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Anwar M. Shaikh, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  These are fast-moving times. Two years ago, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, 2001) projected a federal budget surplus of $172 billion for fiscal year 2003. Within a year, the projected figure had changed to a deficit of $145 billion (CBO 2002). The actual figure, near the end of fiscal year 2003, turned out to be […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, October 2003 PDF (195.88 KB)