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Summary No. 3
Summary Fall 2019
This issue of the Summary features a Strategic Analysis identifying the four main structural problems for the US economy and how the feedback effects between them explain the 2007–9 crisis and account for the weak recovery that followed, as well as offering an estimate of the macroeconomic benefits of recent proposals designed to reduce inequality […] -
Working Paper No. 936
Fiscal Reform to Benefit State and Local Governments
This paper will present the Modern Money Theory approach to government finance. In short, a national government that chooses its own money of account, imposes a tax in that money of account, and issues currency in that money of account cannot face a financial constraint. It can make all payments as they come due. It […] -
Working Paper No. 935
Evolving International Monetary and Financial Architecture and the Development Challenge
This paper investigates the peculiar macroeconomic policy challenges faced by emerging economies in today’s monetary (non)order and globalized finance. It reviews the evolution of the international monetary and financial architecture against the background of Keynes’s original Bretton Woods vision, highlighting the US dollar’s hegemonic status. Keynes’s liquidity preference theory informs the analysis of the loss […] -
Working Paper No. 934
An Analysis of the Daily Changes in US Treasury Security Yields
This paper analyzes the dynamics of long-term US Treasury security yields from a Keynesian perspective using daily data. Keynes held that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate. In this paper, the daily changes in long-term Treasury security yields are empirically modeled as a function of the daily changes […] -
Blog
Bloomberg Interview: Wray on Modern Monetary Theory
Bloomberg Businessweek‘s Cristina Lindblad and Peter Coy sat down with L. Randall Wray for an in-depth interview on Modern Monetary Theory: [iframe src=”https://www.bloomberg.com/multimedia/api/embed/iframe?id=081295ee-e45c-4dae-a380-2989a5ad4c23″ allowscriptaccess=”always” frameborder=”0″></iframe] -
One-Pager No. 60
Fighting Inequality Can Strengthen the US Economy
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, along with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, recently proposed to increase the rate of taxation on very high incomes and net worth. One of the primary justifications for such policies is that reducing inequality would help safeguard political equality. However, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Michalis Nikiforos, and Gennaro Zezza show how these […] -
Working Paper No. 933
Defaultnomics
The 2008 crisis created a need to rethink many aspects of economic theory, including the role of public intervention in the economy. On this issue, we explore the Barro-Ricardo equivalence, which has played a decisive role in molding the economic policies that fostered the crisis. We analyze the equivalence and its theoretical underpinnings, concluding that: […] -
Working Paper No. 932
Rethinking China’s Local Government Debt in the Frame of Modern Money Theory
Local government debt in China is increasing and presents a great threat to China’s financial stability. In China’s fiscal system, the central government often prioritizes reducing its fiscal deficit and can determine to a great extent the distribution of revenue and expenditure between itself and local governments. There is therefore a tendency for the fiscal […] -
Working Paper No. 931
How to Pay for the Green New Deal
This paper follows the methodology developed by J. M. Keynes in his How to Pay for the War pamphlet to estimate the “costs” of the Green New Deal (GND) in terms of resource requirements. Instead of simply adding up estimates of the government spending that would be required, we assess resource availability that can be […] -
OpEd: Don’t let politics derail Greece’s economic recovery
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Working Paper No. 930
A Semi-Parametric Approach to the Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition with Continuous Group Variable and Self-Selection
This paper describes the application of a semiparametric approach, known as a varying coefficients model (Hastie and Tibshirani 1993), to implement a Oaxaca-Blinder type of decomposition in the presence of self-selection into treatment groups for a continuum of comparison groups. The flexibility of this methodology may allow for detecting heterogeneity of the role of endowment […] -
Working Paper No. 929
When to Ease Off the Brakes (and Hopefully Prevent Recessions)
Increases in the federal funds rate aimed at stabilizing the economy have inevitably been followed by recessions. Recently, peaks in the federal funds rate have occurred 6–16 months before the start of recessions; reductions in interest rates apparently occurred too late to prevent those recessions. Potential leading indicators include measures of labor productivity, labor utilization, […]